Sunday, May 27, 2012

GBP/USD on Mon 28 May 2012


Market has shed more than 600 pips from 1.6305 since end of April 2012.
And every time a technical rebound .. last less than a day if not a day, and it is less than 1/3, it indicates that the market is strong bearish.

The Speed of Fall
And market has plunge all the way down towards the main support level 1.5600.
At first, I though market would just come down to 1.5930 before taking off to the next high, but each and everyday I am disappointed because market never find support, and it continues to fall.

The speed of fall, and the strong bear is too strong, coupled with European debt woes, market has generally put their focus on shorting the euros, and moving cash to US dollar, or other US denominated asset.

Bull gone for a month-long holiday
Whilst I wish to hunt for a long.. I am also doubtful of the bull, could the bull return? 
This is just my tiny little hope... I hope a technical digestion to happen.  And… at least, to pull up GBP/USD to 1/3 retracement level, 1.5850 region.

There’s no sign of the bull, as there are no signal reversal signal, no candlestick pattern that support my ‘hope’, and no stochastic level that can prove my viewpoint right.

So, I will do nothing, I will still sit, and wait.
GBP/USD is trading at 1.5667, another 60 pips to strong support level.

If I want to Trade
Yah, I can short, 17 pips above market open, and take profit at 100 pips below.  Which is what a student will do, trade with trend, not with a hope - at least for now, not yet.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and Nasdaq 100 for the week starting 28th May 2012

Monday 28 May 2012

US Banks will be closed in observance of Memorial Day, US Economic statistics may hold the focus of the holiday shortened week.

Will Greece leave the Euro Zone?  Questions has been popping up and there’s no one who can tell us Yes or No, and even though someone can tell, I am not sure whether the result follows (hehe ^_^), and I guess… most probably we might only get to know after the election on 17 June.  But market will certainly pay closer look when we are approaching to the day...

Last Friday DJIA fell 74.92 pts., or 0.6% to 12,454.83 pts. at the close.
Even though market were badly affected by European sovereign debt troubles, over last week, DJIA gained 0.7%.  And in most of the headlines, were the listing of Facebook, did u pay attention to it?

So, for the coming 4 days trading week, we believe US Economic statistics may hold the focus, and lets look at the major announcement calendar.

Major announcement (based on GMT+8 :: SG/MY Time)
[Tuesday ]
10:00pm CB Consumer confidence, consensus 69.6, previous 69.2. 
10:00pm Pending Home Sales;
8:30pm Prelim GDP q/q, ADP Non Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Claims;
8:30pm NFP, Unemployment Rate;
10pm ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Since market is closed on Monday, my forecast is now based on YM on Broco Trader (MT4).

I reckon market to trade sideways with the top restricted to current resistance 12480 region.
And to test current support 12385 on Monday.  Since the major announcement only come into play on Tuesday night, I suggest traders to stay sideline and take some time to discover other US dollar denominated asset like Gold.


Monday, May 21, 2012

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and Nasdaq 100 for the week starting 21st May 2012


DJIA closed at 12369.38 pts, down 73.11 pts or 0.59% last Friday.
Worst performing week, since last November - DJIA was down 3.5% for the week.

If we plot a downward channel, market has fallen towards the bottom support line, we forecast market to come up to the upper channel (resistance) 12430, before another leg down of 150 pts - 12280 or 12250.

DJIA 30 mins chart:

Nasdaq 100

Similar to Dow, there is only more DOWN..
Next support 2440 pts.

We expect a technical rebound as the market is oversold but resistance shall be capped at 2517-2520 pts.

Hunt for short near resistance 2517-2520, SL 2530 (1/3 retracement)
Target Exit:
TG1: 2480,
TG2: 2440.

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

GBP/USD Update

GBP/USD on 16-May-2012

Something interesting is happening, timing is almost there.
With the euro turmoil, Greece election, US JPMorgan chase 2 billion trading loss…

We see USD shooting up like crazy..

And so in line with non so good economic data release from the Great Britain side…

Market plunged and now trading at 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Check day chart below.

My method is easy.
Fibonacci retracement, 50%, look for a strong reversal signal, or previous group support.

Here I identified two levels…
Current 1.5930 (red triangle box)
Next support 1.5810 (purple line)

I hope market do not need to fall there (1.5810) but start to consolidate from today, trade sideways between 1.5900 – 1.6050 (150 pips) and breakup to next high next week.
I believe market will repeat the same cycle, and so, for the remaining of the week, I reckon market to consolidate, bias up.

I rather not enter any trade, but hope to long (now), or initiate Long next Monday (save some overnight interest, save myself from weekend news) and lets ride.

Will post if trade was done.

Gold Update

On this beautiful Wednesday evening, 16-May-2012

Take a look at Gold, what say you?

Gold Daily Chart

Group Support level: 1522
Psychological Support 1500
Next bottom: 1475

You think it is a good buy now?
I think not yet.

Bargain hunting to buy some precious gold, may be buying action should only come next week.
This week, lets continue shorting!

No signal from hourly chart, no signal from 30 mins chart, not overbought, neither oversold.
Daily Range 23 pts.
Can short when market returns 1540.
Target exit: 1522
Target exit: 1500

Will be greedy to buy when it fall below 1500 towards 1475.

Sunday, May 13, 2012

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and Nasdaq 100 for the week starting 14th May 2012

Identifying the major support and resistance, trade according to your belief.
Once market crossed the mark, relax, and stay tuned.  There is trading opportunity every week, everyday, every hour.  No rush, patience, and wait for market to unfold the story, make quick decision when the time is near, take 100% responsibilities and accountability of your own trading account.


DJIA has marked another bearish candle for the week, and as per our forecast, market found support at 12850 and closed near this level, last done 12820.

Ultimately, DJIA has tested below 12750 and it is now is a bearish tone with the Eurozone turmoil, in line with many other economical threat.

We have observed market rebound at 12750 region, and market was trading sideway in a flag pattern waiting the next breakout.

We reckon market to trade within tightening range between 12750-12920 for 2 days before the next bull / bear emerge.

Resistance 12920
Strong Resistance 13050

Support 12720
Next support 12685
Once break below 12685, target to reach 12530.

Nasdaq 100

Similarly, Nasdaq 100 continued the downfall, achieved our target 2610 and tested below strong support 2795, and finally close at 2615.

This week we expect market to trade in range between 2590 – 2665.
For Monday & Tuesday market is more likely to test current support 2600 before going up to test resistance 2660, I personally favor to long around 2604 – 2609 pts. (against the market sentiment) for a quick trade.

Next is to observe resistance of 2665, if market is bearish, and formed a bearish candle in 4H chart while testing 2665, then I would prefer to short and wait for market to test support 2610-2615 towards end of the week.

Cheers, lets make some money


Another blessed Sunday :)
I am sitting right in front of my laptop since 12.. and I have done some reading, read the headlines of the week on global market, read a few article that grab my interest, then I got distracted a bit, I went to the store room to find what is available for my June holiday.

I check my cabin bag, my backpack, thinking of what should I bring when I visit to Taipei, Taiwan?

Since I am gonna stay in a 4 beds female dorm, on the 4th floor without lift (yeah it needs a bit of walking and/or climbing).. I think I should have bring some light luggage instead.

Take a look at the picture... My backpack is parked side by side to the approved cabin bag size... Since the backpack size look similar to a cabin bag, I think it should not be a problem if I bring them up to the aircraft...

Why would I need two bag instead of 1?  11 days of stay in Taipei, the shopping is going to add up to my return luggage ^__^ after food, and night markets.

the backpack looks cool isn't it.. monotone, with lots and lots of compartments.
and found this little angel someone brought for me from Taiwan two - three years back.  It is hiding in one of the side pocket ^__^


End of my side stories... Coming up, market forecast :)


Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Updates on US30

Market has fallen below 13000 and plunged to 12850 which is also our weekly target.

Expect little support around 12850 and return to 12900.

As per my weekly forecast, i switched from sideway bullish to bearish if market failed to sustain above 12980.

I will Hunt for shorting opportunity when the bear takes a breather and return to resistance 12900-12950.

- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Sunday, May 6, 2012

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and Nasdaq 100 for the week starting 7th May 2012


DJIA was trading up all the way to 13338 early of last week, and as per what we quoted - overhead resistance near 13300 is strong, in line with negative economic announcements and euro zone debt woes, DJIA traded down to 13050- a strong support level.

This is a crucial level to watch, if DJIA is not able to sustain above 13050, further correction down to 12850 is within reach for this week.

However, we can only expect some major announcements on Friday, so I forecasts DJIA to trade sideways at the current level, 13000 may be up to 13180 level from Monday to Wednesday.

My preference is still hunting for long, personally, I will observe when DJIA traded down to test 13000 support level, and might want to long if market shows support here, provided that DJIA never trade below 12980, if this happen (trade below 12980), it proves more downside correction is expected and I will change my short term view from Long - to Short and expect to close the short position at 12850 level.


NASDAQ 100 posted a bearish weekly candle. This week, bearish.

R2: 2695-2700
R1: 2642
S1: 2630
S2: 2595-2600

Monday hunt for shorting opportunity using initial shadow at R1 level 2642, SL 2650, and aim to exit at 2610-2630.