DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA for Week starting 30 Apr 2012

Early of last week, DJIA tested support 12880 and further dip to 12850 which signifies weakening of market sentiments, at first, we thought market could continue to dip down to 12750 but, market reverses and continue to surge to our target price during remaining of the week.

Resistance: 13280 – 13300

We reckon the top resistance is strong and DJIA could be temporarily supported at 13150.

If DJIA manages to break above 13300, then it could drive all the way up to 13450 which is also the wave target price if we mark April 2012 low as X and 12845 on 13/4/12 as B.

Hunt for long when market retrace to 1/3 near 13150 region.

Abandon Long if DJIA traded below 13050 strong support.

Sunday~~ Full Charge

Surprise, surprise and surprise!

Blogger has revamped new look, I saw the page load and statistics when I log in to the blogger main page, the page load is higher than what was printed on my blog, I guess that was due to my reset of my whole blog in July 2010 when I decides to start all over again and removed the past posts since 2007.

Then I go to the "load from" to take a look at the visitor map... and surprised to know that this forum http://chartistsunited.com/forum/index.php, printed my blog in their blog directories... I do not know who is the author or administrator of this forum and I continue to find out more statistics.

It seems that the blog is driving some visitor from US, Malaysia and Singapore which is quite surprise to me also.

Thanks to the reader and this is my trading journal and I hope in someway it is beneficial..

I have been busy the past weeks - new job scope, performance, dance classes, gathering, relationship concerns, holidays... and I would like to say things start to settle down and I have strike off many "To Do's" from my list.

Watched a movie this morning, and it is good.
"We bought a Zoo"

 Touching and nice...

20 seconds of courage... and Let's do it.  Why Not?
Life is an adventure.

DJIA update Mon 23-Apr-2012

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls

A very good morning from the marine rich, beautiful island - Pulau Redang!

I hv tried multiple times to access the Internet but it takes 1 minute to load a page... And another minute to load a chart...
Reminding me of last decade while Internet is slow and we are all patiently waiting for everything to appear. But with modern technology, we are pampered, and we can't seem to be waiting!

I was lying down on the hammock while reading US30 chart from FXCM, and not able to see DJIA chart. So the levels quoted here might not be accurate.

US30
For the following week, DJIA might continue trading in consolidation within the channel formed since these two weeks and if u can, draw a supporting trendline diagonally up which indicates where it will be supported.

QLast done: 13020
S1: 12950
S2: 12880
R1: 13130
R2: 13250

Long long up up here we go DJIA.

If DJIA broken this supported trendline and trade below 12880 and it becomes Resistance, then DJIA shall continue the slide to 12750 and 12550 respectively.

Cheers
Ayumi

It must not be a choice

Recently I have been overwhelmed with work. Moody.
The task is continuously testing my capabilities, I am challenged because I always think that I have limitation, and I always think that I am lack of resources.

Someone on my FB wall commented, suggest me … to go back to Trading.
Yes, I really hope so, to give up everything, just dance, and trading.

But I do NOT want things to happen this way…
Trading should not be a choice.
Dances should not be a choice.

I simply think that we cannot choose trading, or dancing, because I failed in some other areas.
I just do NOT want trading to be an option.

It is like… going back to your ex and tell them “the new relationship doesn’t work out”.
How does it sounds?

I bet it sounds like “Ewwwww…”annoying.

I am working so hard, to strike a balance between all the things I regard as important in my life… all these activities enriched my life, and I do not want them to become an option.
There are unlimited possibilities, and unlimited happiness if we are able to work out all these 3 things.

It satisfy me, my mother, and my bank account.

And I would like to encourage you to dedicate more, focus more, work hard towards getting what you want, and going full speed to achieving them. When you look back, there are only two things:
1. these are the experiences in life worth fighting for, or
2. they are plain rubbish…
but undoubtedly, you have given them the true meaning with all hard work.

What if it works?

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and Nasdaq 100 Update for Mon 16 Apr 2012

DJIA

DJIA plunged last Monday & Tuesday on renewed Euro Zone debt crisis, it went down to test 12750 main support, formed a low around 12715 and rebounded to 12986 while investor hope another round of easing from Federal Reserves.

Market has suffered the worst 2nd week in this year, and fallen way below 13000, and the market condition has shifted from sideway bearish, to bearish.

We at Ayumi the Novice Trader viewed last Thursday and Friday as technical correction and market shall capped below 13000.

Current support 12700 is still holding up the market and therefore we reckon the technical correction to continue until Tuesday/Wednesday before market decides its next move.

If market is not able to break above 13000, we expect market to extend its losses to 12500; this is the 50% Fibo Retracement level. Currently 13000 act as a strong resistance which is a difficult level to break if DJIA wants to turn to bullish again.

Follow us, visit us again on Thursday for trading insights by Sarah.


NASDAQ 100

Market condition: sideway bearish
Weekly chart: NASDAQ 100 has formed the first bearish candle, and there will be more to come.

Support 2730 has turned into resistance now.

Market will trade sideway between 2700 – 2730, and may revisit 2685, once market break below 2685, we expect market to turn down to WTP 2630 in 2-3 weeks time.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA

US NFP increased by 120k (meaning added 120k jobs in March 2012) – fewest in five months, lower than forecast 207k (previous month 240k), market optimism has turned sour…
after the announcement market has fallen more than >1%.

Read this:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-06/employers-added-120-000-jobs-in-march-fewest-in-five-months.html

From technical chart,
Daily chart: uptrend remain intact if DJIA can maintain above its major support 13000.

Intraday 4H chart: from short term trading - DJIA has fallen below the uptrend support, thus market has turned from sideways bullish, to sideways bearish.

We expect the market to trade below daily chart major support 13000, and expect market to rebound when it touches 12950, however, the rebound would not be strong and limited to previous support 13100-13150 (which has turned resistance).


YM

Similar to Dow, short term view bearish, target to test support 12700-12750.
YM on Broco chart was trading at 12850 last Friday.
Stochastic level is low therefore we reckon market to trade sideways bias up to R1: 12880, R2: 12930.

Daily Trading: Initiate short trade at resistance R1, and target exit 12750 (based on initial shadow)


NASDAQ 100

Support 2730 holding strong.

Stochastic level is high but no signal for drastic downward correct, expect market to continue trading sideways with bullish bias. Due to Easter holiday, market was closed last Friday, but beware for external factors which might pull NASDAQ 100 down. Suggest to stay out.

NQ

NQ has formed the First black candle on weekly chart!
For the coming week, I expect market to trade sideways bias down testing support S1: 2710, S2: 2700.
EMA50 Support has turned into resistance now near 2750 region.

We can choose, we can move forward

It has been a while I don’t read… and it has been a while since I last met mentor JC…
Work, commitment and new assignments have filled my calendar. I am constantly rushing… moving forward, I know, there shouldn’t be rush over everything, there could be something call: step by step…
There were something we need sit down, take time, embrace.. spend time.. and chill.

I read a beautiful article this beautiful morning… allow me to share a few line here with the readers.

Full article is here from The Daily Motivator – Ralph Marston

Lift the future
Just because you can become frustrated, doesn’t mean you must. Just because there are reasons to be angry or envious, resentful or disillusioned, doesn’t mean you have to choose any of those negative states.

Your choice of how to feel does not have to be dictated by the world around you. Instead, you can allow your feelings to come from the beauty that’s inside you.

Don’t base your feelings on the problems. Base them on the positive possibilities.

… Time moves forward, so look forward, and feel the limitless future as it arrives.

I have a choice,
Ayumi

Weekly Forecast (FX)

Good morning traders!
Did u switch off for Earth hour last night?

I am early and it is so quiet now… quietness allows me to think best, work best and fast.
I have posted the DJIA and Nasdaq 100 update earlier ^__^ and next! Let’s go to our FX weekly review and forecast.

For the week starting 2nd April 2012

GBP/USD

Happy happy on GBP/USD forecast.
Last week forecast here

Market has found support 1.5810 strong and long trade on Monday is CrazEE!
Market has break above 1.5900 convincingly and all the way to 1.6000 on Tuesday.

It was a roller coaster ride… because market has hit this psychological level 1.6000 and then re-tests 1.5810.
I would be ideal to initiate another long here but I was always hoping for discount, market came down to 1.5850 and rebounded… so, I missed :-P

Momentum is strong and next target for GBP/USD is 1.6150.

We at Ayumi the Novice Trader reckon rally to continue.
Monday will be continual of the rally towards 1.6050, and then I expect a little pull back to 1.5950 – on Tuesday, and aim to long near 1.5950 (wed) and exit 1.6150 for the week.

My colleague has asked me: Olympic work for GBP/USD?
Think about it…

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and NASDAQ 100 for the week starting 2-Apr-2012

DJIA

DJIA closed at 13212.04 pts. for the week, for the 1st quarter of 2012, the strongest quarter in 2 years.

US Stocks rallied as a result of the ultra-loose monetary policy from US Federal Reserve, Mr Ben Bernanke further added that - more stimulus is required to accommodate the current economy situation; along with the improvement of economic data; summary of all - increase investors risk appetite and more cash in the equity market.

Quote:

“The market can continue to rally into May and the early part of June,” Jon Fisher, a fund manager at Fifth Third Asset Management in Minneapolis, which oversees about $16 billion of assets, said in a telephone interview. “You have all that monetary policy unleashed in the market globally. At the same time, you got a huge improvement in sentiment. Outlooks for the rest of the year are going to continue to be positive.”

Source: Bloomberg

From the economic data front, last Friday there were no major release, Personal Spending rose by 0.8% in February 2012 (more than consensus 0.6%) boosted by the strong employment data. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s final index of consumer sentiment rose to 76.2, the highest since February 2011, from 75.3 last month.

Next week focus: US Non-Farm Payroll
2nd week of April 2012: Earnings & Report season.

From technical chart:
Weekly: DJIA has posted another positive candle but the range is capped between previous week’s H-Lo range.
Further sideways movement is expected for early of the trading week.
Range expected: 13100 – 13250.

Daily:
Recovery from 13030 regions on last Thursday confirmed 13000 a strong support which shouldn’t be broken below to ensure the rally to next target 13300 and 13450.

However, if market has broken below 13000, next strong support is 12850.

Trading Plan:
Expect support at 13100 region and initiate long with SL below 13000 and ride the rally towards 13250, 13300, and 13450. Check 4 hours chart if market came down to 13100 regions and observe rejection of EMA50.

Beware of NFP on Friday, sit tight for the ride.



NASDAQ 100

Super bull shall continue … ^__^

Support 2740
Strong Support 2713
Immediate resistance 2790 (BKO level)
Target 2815-2820.