DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 1-July-2013

When I commit to start looking at my losing trade..
I realizes.. I commit to making the same mistake.

I went to the church this morning, visiting the church my colleague AG used to go.
The topic were not much on trading.. what surprises to me is that, during the worship I uncontrollably cried, and the tears fall like a leaking tab.

A good friend of mine, LW, he said:
"That's the hand of God, touches you. For redemption, confession".
He is just another personality that never stop surprising me.
Never underestimate someone else's pain, I am glad he has passed many tests, and challenges, and still being him, crazy fella.

Perhaps after time my wound would heal.  Perhaps after time I would embrace my limitation, and live limitless.

DJIA
Last week on DJIA, check this out:

DJIA 4 Hour Chart.

well so market went a bit higher than 2nd resistance 15000..
highest 15071 pts.

Monday market may go sideways between 14850 - 15000 pts.
If market continue to suffer below 15,071 pts, I am strong bear.
I would just love to plant shorts, and more shorts.

Aim to plant short at 15000 pts (or higher), SL slightly above high 15080.
Target exit 14850, or 14820 pts.

This is also the level where market shall find support before the next move.

Weekly Chart
From higher time frame, market still forms lower high, lower low and the power wave formation is intact.
next target to hit 14250 - 14300 pts, rebound, if the sentiment is low market might reach down to 13,900 pts in 2-3 weeks (by mid July 2013).

Nasdaq 100

I think I have double standards when it comes to Nasdaq 100 compare to DJIA.

Nasdaq 100 shall trade sideways early of week between 2880 - 2940 pts.
and there might be a potential for Nasdaq 100 to break above 2940 pts, if this happens, we expect a strong resistance at 3000 pts.

Well, I hope market capped below 2940 pts, and start the slide towards 2850 pts.
If the slide really happens, next target for this downwave is 2760 tps.

I will abandon my short view if market break above 2940 and close near 3000 pts.
This just shouldn't happen...

Cheers
Ayumi

Transaction

Gold trade closed
Tempted to Long Dow. Dropped the idea / abandoned.

Time to bed.

Order ticket:
Revised target price to 1230$ but market range diminished and I do not want to wait. Manual close and finish work for the week.



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Gold on Fri 28-June-2013

Long Gold
Entry: $1215,
Stop Loss: $1205 ($10)
Target Exit:: $1250 ($35)

How much more should Gold drop?

It has dropped far more than what I hv forecasted earlier.




Catching a falling knife is not recommended but many can't resist the temptation.

I will be the next.

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DJIA on Thu 27-Jun-2013

It's still Wednesday in US. Mid week.

The forecast went well and market is approaching EMA50 (4H) chart.

I'm expecting market to go slightly higher (above 14900) and close below with a reversal candlestick pattern.






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Gold on Mon 24-Jun-2013

Gold has fallen to 3L and appraoching 4L.

Strong support at $1260 which is only $20 away.
Stochastic is mid range so there might be room to go down from current price of $1283.

Strong resistance $1340.

I forecast market to trade sideways bias down towards $1260.
Short opportunity $1315
Long opportunity $1279
SL $8
TG $20-24 / close EOD.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for week starting 24-June-2013

I started to develop this habit of writing my forecast on a weekly basis.
And every beginning of a week, I would look back at my previous week forecast.
for week starting 17-June-2013, posted on 18-June-2013

and this is what happened:

Timing and Price is always the main clue we need to find from the chart, it is always the key to our forecast.

I am happy when my forecast for direction is right, but I am still searching the ideas to make it work for me.
I did some silly mistake last week, and a very good blogger friend shared some nice comment and made my day.
Thank you soulfire. his blog here [Xanga]

We are at the final week of June 2013.

Monthly Chart:

monthly candle is looking ugly already...
there would be some shadow below, before the close of this month's candle.

So I forecast the last trading week, DJIA break below previous month low (14690 pts), preferably test 14570 pts;
and close around 14750 pts.

Weekly Chart:

I reckon market to trade in a narrow range this week, bias down to test support 14570 pts, lowest to go 14460 pts.

Then rebound up to resistance 14850 pts before closing at 14750 pts again.
Strong resistance at 15000 pts, if market really reaches 15000 pts, I want to initiate short coupled with EMA50 strategy in 4H chart.

I would say there's nothing much this week, until a strong short signal prevails.

Nasdaq 100

Bearish

This week, Nasdaq 100 may continue to start the week falling towards 2850 pts.
There is a potential to rebound near 2850 pts, to bring Nasdaq 100 back up to 2900 pts, or strong resistance 2930 pts.

The bearish sentiment should stick unto Nasdaq 100 until end of July 2013.

I forecast Nasdaq 100 to fall towards 2757 pts, then 2680 pts, it should not break below 2580 pts to resume uptrend.

Cheers
Ayumi

Learn from Losing

Part 2

Ops I did it again.

This time the scenario is slightly worse...

The confirmation in 1 hour chart is good.
I queued to Long at 14890 pts, order filled at 11pm (GMT+8, SG/MY time), 11am DJIA time.

I parked my stop loss at 60 pts away, target profit at 100 pts away.
By looking at this chart, you know, I am right, and I am suppose to be happily making profit.
Ironically...

NO

I entered this trade with my live account, which I have withdrawn my money, leaving not more than $150 in this account.
Market continue to fall, and account margin hit.
Both my exit price were cancelled automatically, system closed my position at 14852 pts.
Loss $37.

I am terribly sorry to myself.
Who is the stupidest of all to enter into a trade with an account can't sustain $60 and get triggered?
Me
Who is the stupidest of all to enter into a trade with Live account while she has promised not to do that in 2013?
Me

That's gotta be me.
$37
Worth so many hamburgers...

Related Post:
Part 1 of my Learn from Losing [Link]

DJIA on Thu 20-Jun-2013

Can it hit 750 this week?

Nice down !!

Yuppie Happie

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DJIA and Nasdaq 100

For the week starting 17 June 2013

It's Tuesday today and I just got back to my desk to start work. Many emails and updates.

It's choppy on the DJIA chart last week.

See day chart.




Weekly chart captured on Tuesday 3:15pm (GMT+8)




I shall post my forecast tonight.


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When I view my blog I get to see a lot of squares and rectangular without chart, and the font size went haywire.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 17 June 2013

Looking at weekly chart, we have two reversal candlestick pattern for mid May and end May 2013.

followed by two long shadow candle for 1st and 2nd week of June.

Coming into 3rd week of June, now what?

Market has corrected for 700 pts and recovered more than 400 pts as of now at 12am, GMT+8 / 12pm, ET.

I have two contrary view this week, market shall continue choppy sessions, to break above 15,300 pts, then test resistance 15,400 pts.

Major Support 14850 pts.

hence for this week I will trade with Fibo Range.

For Tuesday:

Short 15301 pts - 15320 pts

SL 15350 pts - 15375 pts

TG 15150 pts.

Long 15090 - 15100 pts

SL 15030 pts

TG 15300 pts.

Nasdaq 100

From Weekly chart, Nasdaq 100 outlook is relatively bearish as I compare to DJIA.

Resistance at recent high 3005 pts.

Support 2,965 pts.

Fibo Range

Short 2995 - 3000 pts.

SL 3001 pts

TG 2960 pts

Long 2950 pts

SL 2930 pts

TG 2980 pts.

FX Updates

I am thrilled...

Look at the gravity..

USD/JPY

Daily Chart

USD/JPY

4 Hour Chart

The Yen currency has devalued to a point where a correction is needed.

I think USD/JPY still have range to fall, towards 93.00.

However, any fundamental changes would help to end this correction early.
I forecast market to resume uptrend to 104.20, and 106.30 after correction.

USDX

Take a look at US Dollar Index Daily Chart..

Market has fallen to EMA200, and some slim shadow over here... hope EMA200 (gold dash-dot line) work as a net - for USDX to bounce off to 82.00 then 82.70.

I reckon a sideways bias up movement for USDX.

Forecast market to resume downtrend after this bounce, towards 81.00 then 80.00 before July 2013.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 10 June 2013

Market has come to a pattern which many reversal traders like to participate.

Weekly Chart:
After two reversal candlestick pattern in mid May and end of May 2013, market fall for 299 pts last week and closed above the weekly opening.

Daily Chart:
It is exciting to see market found support at 1/3 fibo level strongly, and rebounded - can I say uptrend is likely to continue?

Check the first correction in April 2013, and current correction - I hope it will be a guide if you are bullish.
Take precaution as on weekly chart, there is a lower low, and relatively lower high, if market breaking below 14,843 pts this month, bear will take control and send DJIA down to 14750, 14650 pts.

From intraday chart, I could do a quick forecast for coming trading day (Monday).

Bullish day candle shall sends DJIA higher but limit to 15310 pts resistant.
strong resistance 15400.
Breaking above 15400 pts I would abandon hunting short but watch closely how market break recent high to reach 15850 pts.

from 4 Hour chart, EMA50 has turned from resistance to a fighting line between bull and bear.
I prefer to trade at extreme ends.

Short 15290 pts, close EOD.
Long 15010 pts, close EOD.

Nasdaq 100

From intraday chart, Nasdaq 100 and DJIA pattern is slightly contradicting..

from 4 Hour chart, based on the candlestick pattern, I am a strong believer Nasdaq 100 would continue going down.

Rooftop resistance 3000 pts.

Support 2945
TG 2890

If Nasdaq100 were to go north, it must break above 3000 pts this week, and stay above 3030 pts for rest of this month.

Cheers
Ayumi

Long black Long white

Long black or Americano,
Commonly found in Australia, New Zealand and Brazil.
Double shot Espresso, over hot water.

Long black
Long black is more strongly flavored.
(Water first, Espresso second)

Americano
(Espresso first, water second)

So, JPY has a long tailed white candle, that's the idea of this blog title.  (^_^)

Time to start my weekend project.

Well, I am not having a Long black now, but today, this house blend from Starbucks + Chocolate Tuxedo Cake is a luxury.

What's Starbucks House Blend?
Check this out: http://www.starbucksstore.com/house-blend/VM_HOUSE,default,pd.html



Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA Update 6-Jun-2013

DJIA has came down to 14900 region, 1L target hit within 2 days. It's fast.

Reckon market to take a break with some sideways movement within 14900 - 15120.
Sideways to test resistance level (which was the BKO level) at 15120.

Check yesterday's DJIA update for future target levels.





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Nice fall Usd/JPY

Resisted below 103




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DJIA update on 5-Jun-2013

EMA50 (4H) work very nice tonight.
Position closed with ATR(9) 135 pts within 1 candle (4H).

Resistance 15260 pts
Stochastic is relatively low now, market might go thru a series of swing.
Preferably resisted below 15250 to confirm reversal down.
Target 14900 pts, ultimate target 14750 pts. 

DJIA update 2013-06-04

DJIA ends at session high.
It didnt come down as forecast.

Overhead resistance 15280.
Break above 15300 and stay above to resume uptrend,
Or resisted below to continue correction.



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DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for week starting 3-Jun-2013

DJIA

Its bearish, but does this candle represent anything for US?

Well, it has hit 3L (blue) target or a 4L (orange) target near 15500 pts.
and formed a reversal candlestick pattern, followed by a bearish candle this week.

Let's take some clue from Dec'2012 (6 months ago), this pattern has formed after a series of positive candle, it wasn't an all time high, and market continue to skyrocket, it could be a history repeating by itself.

Stock market, one direction..  Up... Fed policy causing it?

Last week, Economic Data, positive.
Consumer confidence above expectation.
Unemployement Claims risen.

Take a look at Daily Chart.

When we look further, we have better idea of where the market is leading us.
With this bearish engulfing pattern, we are pretty sure market is going to suffer more loss this coming Monday.

I would prefer to trade with initial shadow on Monday, short at 30 pts above opening.
SL 50 pts, TG 150 pts.

Market could possibly find support near 15000 pts, but attempt to dive down to 14900 pts.
Target 14750 pts -- strong support.

Just in case market repeats by itself, some fundamental changes (like, fed decision) would lead DJIA back on track to resume uptrend.
Resistance 15530 pts (black)(batman head),
breaking above 15530 ptrs means DJIA could go all the way towards 15850 pts.

Personally, I would love to place short entry on Monday.
Short at 30 pts above opening.
SL 50 pts, TG 150 pts, TG2 14900, TG3 14750 pts.

Nasdaq 100

Refer to my last post on 27-May, I really hope  that market could  touch 3070.
Nope.

It works quite similar to Dow.

but we do not have bearish engulfing.
So again, I am less bearish. :-P

For short term trading, I guess I would end up entering Short entry near 3005 pts, SL 3020 (again!), TG 2885 pts.

For the weekly position I would hunt to short near 3015-3020 pts, SL 10 pts above , TG 2945 pts.

Cheers
Ayumi

Learn from Losing

Nasdaq 100 on last day of the month.

I initiated a short trade.
Based on the understanding of the end of the consolidation, from a smaller time frame.

I am not a master of trend line.. I don't trade with plotting a new diagonal lines then call them support / resistance, that's not me, but the pattern does suggest a little consolidation and it might end soon.  This is what I see.

while it might have a little range to go up, I wanted to bet on the shorting opportunity.

Market Entry initiated.
SL near previous high. 3020.

Obviously, like the trend line I set earlier.. market did has some range to go, and it reached highest 3023.
Before coming down, dive even below my short trade target.

Overall, this is what happened.

I am 1-2 hours early to enter to this short trade.
Did I make a mistake?
How do I time more accurately, how to improve?

Please enlighten me if you have any.