DJIA on Wed 4-Dec-2013

Profit taking after 8 weeks gain.

From weekly timeframe,
If market formed a nice black candle, it would confirm a reversal and we expect market to find support near 15700 then 15450 pts - in 2 weeks time.
Due to Christmas holiday, we expect inflationary figures like consumer price, retail sales and other fundamentals to keep market up, let's see how it goes.

From 4 hours time frame, I forecast market to test lower before ending higher this week.
Market seem to find support at current level, but have tendency to go lower.

This is how I arrive to my wave target price from smaller timeframe.

The rest is up to market and fundamentals.

Have a blissful week.
Watch out Friday NFP.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 25-Nov-2013

One month has passed and 1 month to Christmas!
I have picked 20 over songs for next year syllabus, collecting photos for my album cover, planning study materials and collecting events, festivals information.

Year 2014 is going to be another fun-filled year, mum always tell me:
you will know it when you need to.

Same thing goes for cooking, teaching or coaching.
Unlike installing software by plugging USB to my body, download / install new knowledge;
Experience were collected with every failure... - only if I take the opportunities, trust my instinct, work hard, and pray.

Dow posted New High above 16k

Dow has posted strong gain - above 16000 levels - another strong month for November (another 5 days to close).

The Federal Reserve maintain low interest rates to ensure smooth recovery.

Latest FOMC minutes bring tapering back to the focus but market still going higher and we believe, market will continue trading higher despite the quiet holiday month in December 2013.

Higher high, higher low, and coming week:
R2: 16450 pts
R1: 16130 pts
S1: 15980 pts
S2: 15880 pts

From technical chart, we forecast Dow to trade sideways bias down towards support 15980 pts - 16000 pts before going higher towards 16130-150 pts.
any dip below 15980 pts would present good opportunity to long, abadon long once market breached strong support level 15880 - 15900 pts.

Long 15950 pts,
SL 15900 pts
TG 16130 pts / EOD
TG2 for extreme condition 16450 pts

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 21-Oct-2013

Soulfire has officially 'migrated' to wordpress.
Visit his new blog address:
http://soullfire.wordpress.com/

I like it very much when soulfire pointed out my misconception:

So when the debt ceiling needs to be raised, it’s associated with prior approved spending that requires the ceiling to be raised. The key to remember here is the ceiling isn’t raised to allow the government to approve new spending, but to pay the bills of the spending that was ALREADY APPROVED. This is where many people get confused, they think raising the ceiling encourages more spending, but what it actually does is just pay for past spending obligations, not new ones.

I suggest you to read his post on Government Shut Down and Debt Ceiling Limit 101

Well I didn't post last two weeks during government shut down.
I didn't even trade.
I looked at market, lost a few hundred points, and go back alive by winning more than 200+ points in 1 day.

Back in those days, I might be immersed with trading, full of excitement, either make some money, or lost some, or being flat.
I am not sure whether I could make money trading during those extreme moments, or I could lost money, lost confidence, or lost discipline.

When market is finally back to 'normal' normal, I continue with my normal posting, blogging and having fun.
Perhaps I am not as aggressive as before, or more accurately, my dancing career has prospered and it has cast my energy away from trading.

DJIA

Techincally DJIA shall continue to rise above 15550 pts but capped below 15420 pts during early of the week.

Support 15180 pts should be a good level to look for long opportunity.

If support fails, next support is 15050 pts.

Nasdaq 100

Way to go Nasdaq 100
Stay out.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 30-Sep-2013

Last trading day for September month.

Image source: http://money.cnn.com
Read their article on: Debt Ceiling

Debt ceiling is like my credit card credit limit.
So now I am the biggest consumer and the biggest client for this merchant bank, I make purchases, I stimulate businesses, I ask for anything I want, I give them businesses...
When I can't pay, I ask the bank to increase my credit limit and enjoy the 'free credit' without thinking of the consequences, nor thinking about my capability to pay.

For the debt ceiling of USD$16.699 trillion.
How many times could I expect the 'bank' increases great America their credit limit?
Where actually the money go?
Number of job is increasing, average wage isn't rising, where has 85 billion gone, back to the banks?

Technical Forecast
DJIA

Market is bearish, it shows tiny little support last week and the resistance has shifted from 15550 pts down to 15350 pts.

15188 pts is within reach just early of next week.

I have not been trading real cash for sometime.
I have the urge to trade live already... so far this year the trades were good, till date 10% capital growth is manageable,
10% is not an encouraging number to a lot of traders out there - I still see 'schools' claiming 100%  (or more!) returns - I just don't know how they make it.
I am worried that I would end up losing my discipline again.

Nasdaq 100

Last week was a volatile week for Nasdaq 100
My forecast is totally wrong.

Trader Alex Siew (check my blogroll) said: if DJIA has been falling and Nasdaq 100 is been rising, must be "boh ho kang tau" (hokkien, implies something fishy is coming up).

Technically, Nasdaq 100 shall continue trading sideways in narrow range within 3205 - 3245 bias up (though I am strong bear for DJIA).
Current Support 3218 pts.

However, if DJIA and Nasdaq 100 is co-related, once DJIA plunge below 15150 pts, I expect Nasdaq 100 to follow suit, breaking below 3204 and then sink to 3180 pts.
Otherwise, breaking above 3245 pts, next target 3260 pts.

This seem contradicting and I hope market to teach me more of their co-relations between Nasdaq 100 and DJIA.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 23 Sep 2013

Last Thursday during FOMC statement (Thursday 2am, GMT+8, SG/MY time), The fed surprises market with a decision not to taper, and to continue the monthly USD85billion bond purchase program.

Market is very volatile and we once again witnessed Mr Ben Bernanke's magic wand to entice the market and shock the market.

DJIA

This is not only my forecast, this chart (above) outlined my hope.
First of all, I expect market to continue trading down to support 15400 - 15450 pts and reverse upward.
might face a little resistance near 15550 pts, there're two possibilities:

One:
Market resisted below 15550 pts and continue trading sideways between 15400 - 15600 pts.

Two:
Market breakout to either side, continue trading higher to 15800
or break down to 15200 pts.

Nasdaq 100

Super bull in NQ never dies.
Never tired.  Never need any rest.

Just go higher Nasdaq 100, target 3260 pts.

Cheers
Ayumi

Gold

for the week starting 16-Sep-2013

Gold has fallen below my psychological level and still going lower.
Looking at the weekly chart, I can only see continuation of bearish sentiment, next support $1280 (close to rookie's forecast)

Intraday chart (4H) gold is trading below EMA50, bearish.
Current support (last week low) $1304.

Resistance $1330
Intraday (1H) Gold is trading at oversold area and I hope technically Gold can rebound, I am hoping for rebound - as long as Gold does not trade below $1300, once Gold closed below $1300, $1280 is within reach in a day.

If Gold can sustain above $1304 (last week low) and continue trading higher, next could test resistance $1330 and return to $1355 level.

Cheers
Ayumi

Gold

on 16-Sep-2013

Rookie asked me... why he must do GC forecast.
Why why why
and asked me why Fibo numbers are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%..

I said, people give you a bicycle you won't ask: "why 2 wheels?"
Ride.

Rookie said I LCLY (in Hokkien, means arrogant)
Simply because.. I  can't answer the universal rule laaaaaaaaaa

This week rookie trader forecast Gold to sink to $1275 and rebound back to $1315 (weekly opening).
This is a scary range.
total of $40 range in 5 days, Rookie has a gut feel that the fed decision is going to shake the market upside down!

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for week starting 16-Sep-2013

Happy Malaysia Day Malaysian!

Yesterday I have completed a mission to alter my new costume.
Ozone.

They are ready for my next performance.
And I hope my Law Hobna Ghalta will be ready by then too.

America

American jobless claims fell by 31,000 to 292,000 in the week ended 7 September, returning fear of tapering stimulus in this month.

This week, traders will be watching the FOMC meeting for the opinion of FED Chairman Ben Bernanke in monetary policy for new fiscal year on Thu 19-Sep-2013 2am (GMT+8, SG/MY Time)

Retail sales in the U.S. rose less than forecast in August as the biggest part of the economy struggled to gain momentum. The 0.2 percent increase was the smallest in four months and followed a revised 0.4 percent July gain that was bigger than previously estimated, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington.

Core Retail sales increased 0.1%, less than forecast of 0.3%.

Survey reported that Americans worried that higher interest rates will put a damper on the housing market and overall growth.  U.S. consumer sentiment sink to a five-month low in September at 76.8, last month 82.1.

DJIA

Market has totally reversed from its down trend and shoot up to the ceiling.
Stock market is strong.

Market is trading near 15550 pts and still resisted below 15650 pts.

My forecast for this week:
DJIA prone to trade in small range between 15450 - 15650 pts until Wednesday.
I don't see what is coming and certainly market is highly sensitive to news and I prefer to stay out.

Breaking above 15650 pts could bring DJIA higher to 15850 pts.
Closed below 15400 pts would chase Dow to 15180 pts.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 is forever bullish...
Next target 3260 pts.
Current suport 3190 pts.
Strong Support 3160 pts.

If you are another strong believer of the long term bull in Nasdaq 100, entering Long near 3188 pts, SL 3180, TG 3228 pts.

Cheers
Ayumi
~~ here go mind-dancing to my 2013Q4 syllabus.

Gold

Gold for the week starting 9-Sep-2013

This week rookie trader is very sleepy and rookie cannot find support and resistance.
But he changed view from bullish to bearish.

I showed him my forecast and I decided to post it here.

I forecast Gold to trade sidway bias down to support $1350.
This is also a level where I will cautiously hunt for long.
Strong support at $1330.

Although short is preferable, I would patiently wait for Gold to return to $1400 for shorting opportunity.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 9-Sep-2013

DJIA

Weekly candle suggest further upside to test resistance.
Current resistance R1: 15,050 pts, market is trading at 15,015 pts now.
After breaking above 15,050 pts, DJIA shall head higher to R2: 15,200 pts.

Current support 14,930 pts, a good level to hunt long.
ATR : 120 pts

Nasdaq 100
Bullish Nasdaq 100.
Looking forward to AAPL announcement tomorrow.
New iPhone shall be announced, and generally we are also expecting something *new in other i-products.

Once again, Nasdaq 100 break new high.
Support is far away at 3,120 pts.

Next target for Nasdaq 100 @ 3,213 pts.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Winning the Olympics means a boost in Nikkei.
While I am driving to work, I receive a sms saying Nikkei jumps nearly 3% after robust data and winning Olympic bids, courtesy from CNBC RT mobile app.

Last Friday DJIA has a volatile trading day, disappointing NFP figures and market close positive for the week.

News & Analysis on NFP
Marc To Market [read]
Bloomberg [read]
Business Insider [read]

Well I think Bernanke and the company is decided to taper the stimulus.
Just a matter of when, this month, or next month.

But the technical chart suggest sideways going to continue.
I shall update with technical chart later today.
NetDania chart go crazy, will update tonight at 10pm (GMT+8).

Syrian War
Why Syrian War matters to Oil Market [read]
Strike on Syria? [read]

iPhone, Apple, What to expect this week on Stock Market
Week Ahead [read]

I discovered this cool page on world index [Index map]

Cheers
Ayumi

Follow Up 6-Sep-2013

I posted an update with my iPhone using Blogspot mobile app but unfortunately it was not being published.

I then discovered blogspot mobile app has an update.  The last time I have missing post was during mobile app update too.

= =

Having been away for 2 weeks without much update, I can see that my forecast didn't go too far from my usual performance.

Forecast Gold to fall during Monday is good, entered Long at 1375, Stop Loss at 1/3 ATR (lowest $1373.74), took profit at 1410 is a safe trade.

Enter Short at $1410 is a bumpy ride, as market reaches to 1416.30 highest (almost hit stop loss price $1417.00) and return to the weekly opening price $1382.20.

Took profit and market continue diving down.
Gold is trading at $1372 region.

Refer to my weekly forecast, if market break below $1375, next strong support should be $1340.




- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

For the week starting 2-Sep-2013

US Dollar was firm against most of its major counterparts on Friday - so does today.

On the US economic data front, both personal income and personal spending rose 0.1% MoM (+0.2% and +0.3% expected respectively) in July.
Chicago Purchasing Manager index increased to 53.0 as expected in August from 52.3 the previous month. Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment fell to 82.1 (80.5 expected) from 85.1 the prior month.

DJIA
It was a bearish week for Dow since August 2013 and DJIA suffered 4 weeks of losses.
The Dow is approaching its 200 days EMA and we suspect the downfall is going to halt for a while .. and we are waiting for the congress meeting / decision over Syrian Civil war.

DJIA shall trade between 14730 - 15030 this week, breaking either side shall set the next trend.
I forecast DJIA to be bearish during early of the week and test support on Wednesday.
I am slight bullish and intend to hunt long around 14750 pts.

If support 14750 does not hold, expect strong support around 14,550 pts.

Nasdaq 100
I would say nothing much on Nasdaq 100, but a good opportunity to trade using fibo level.
Expect Nasdaq 100 to swing bias up.


- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Gold on 2-Sep-2013

We have a little project with a rookie trader, the red arrows is the forecast and the trend line drawn by Rookie.

What happened:

I am a strong believer than Gold will come down on the first day, and rookie says Gold will be bullish.
I think it turns out to be good for both of us.

I am still waiting to short.

Cheers
Ayumi

Gold for 2-Sep-2013

I intend to start my weekly forecast on Gold price.

Egypt crisis and Syrian Civil War trigger oil prices, Gold/Silver become the natural hedge tool out of warfare.

Gold price has been rising since early of July from $1238 to current $1394.

After almost 2 months of rising, weekly chart shows the first possible reversal.
Last Wednesday 28-Aug-2013, Gold has posted a reversal candlestick pattern in daily chart.

I forecast the first trading day of September will be another down day, Gold price should be resisted below $1400-10 and seeking a lower entry at $1375.

For early of September, market shall consolidate largely between $1375 - $1440.

If the crisis or civil war heighten, market might shoot up higher to $1480 once Gold breaks overhead resistance $1440.

Technical chart suggest that early of September Gold price might come down a little bit before rising higher.
I intend to short near current resistance $1410, and enter long position around $1375.
I will abandon short view once market break above strong resistance $1440.

Hibernation, and back

I have been silent for the past two weeks, missing my weekly routine.
I guess I keep finding excuses and avoided many commitments.
End of the August Month, we are in the middle of Q3-2013.

EUR/USD
Weeks passed, EUR/USD is channeling up, testing resistance 1.3400 - 450.
EUR suffered steep correction in past two days and currently trading at 1.3230 region.
Current Support 1.3200.
falling below 1.3200 will trigger selling pressure below 1.3000.

GBP/USD
GBP/USD rallied in the August month, toppish at 1.5720 region and trading around 1.5500.
1.5500 is also 1/3 Fibonacci Retracement level, next support should be 1.5400.
I forecast GBP/USD to prone bearish trading towards 1.5400.
Intraday resistance at 1.5530.

USD/JPY
Nothing major to expect on USD/JPY, expect further consolidation between 97.00 - 99.00.
Enter short at key resistance 98.30-98.50 with star candlestick pattern is desirable.

DJIA
I missed all the excitement - due to lose of focus.
I thought DJIA would have climb to 16000 level before significant fall could happen.
Correction has extended for 3 weeks since early of August 2013.
What I expect now is for DJIA to continue trading down to 14600-550 pts and form strong reversal signal for me to enter Long.
p/s: I am reading another book from John C. Maxwell
[Talent is Never Enough]
would like to share a snapshot

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 12-Aug-2013

Since the start of August 2013, DJIA has been trading in narrow range.
Last week we finally see some range changes and on weekly chart, there is a bearish candlestick pattern.

Market has been reacting to news, economic data releases, and we are paying a lot of attention for Sep-Taper month.

Taper, or not taper?

With better than forecast economy data, Sep-taper is coming.
However, Federal Reserves convinced us that tapering doesn't mean tightening.

Let's see, i really expect some bearish sentiments...

At the other side, we take a quick look at USDX, it has fallen to 81.30, close to previous low 80.60, which I believe a technical support should happen around this level to lift USDX back to neutral level around 82.20 - 82.90.

Till then DJIA shall begin its correction back to 15,180 pts.

This week I forecast market to trade sideways bias down to test 15,260 pts, then to recover to 15,450 pts.

Looking forward to a wave formation.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 5-Aug-2013

This is going to be the last 3 days of work before the Raya holiday.
Thursday and Friday is public holiday here in Malaysia and I get to continue clearing off my stuff :)
yippy!

DJIA

Last week DJIA posted modest gains, despite a disappointing job report.
The week is quiet and DJIA shall continue trading sideways bias up, supported above 15550 pts.
Day range around 80 pts.

Still looking at DJIA going towards 16000.  But it seems slow.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 in contrary, posted stronger gains than DJIA.
Looking forward to Nasdaq 100 hitting 3160 pts this week.

Due to the lackluster trading .. I do not plan to trade this week.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 29-Jul-2013

DJIA

Daily Chart
Hola! DJIA break new high, test strong support 15400.
rebounded back to 15554 pts and closed lower this week.

4 hour chart not looking good, a series of lower high, lower low from mid-end of week.

Hourly / Intraday Chart
Market is so alive last Friday.

Intraday trading at overbought level.
await pullback.

Support / Resistance
As per the chart above, this is support (S) / resistance (R) for 1-2 weeks.
R2: 15850
R1: 15620
S1: 15400
S2: 15250

Bullish
Intraday buy 15500 pts, SL 35 ots, TG 15600 or EOD.
Day range diminishing.

July is still a super bull month.
Day range reduced from 180 pts during early July to current 100 pts.

Nasdaq 100

Bullish, higher high, higher low.

R2: 3140
R1: 3090
S1: 3030
S2: 3000

Nasdaq 100 constitutes above EMA20 (D) EMA50 (4H), bullish.

Based on the way Nasdaq 100 trading lately, I would like to play safe.

Extreme Ends, Fibo Range:
Long at 3049, SL 3041, TG 3060 / EOD.
Short at 3085, SL 3093, TG 3060 / EOD.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA on Tue 23-Jul-2013

I missed the weekly forecast and I wished to update today for DJIA...

DJIA has recorded fresh high last week and I forecast the market to chase higher, but upside range is limited to 15650 pts for the time being.

There's no fresh news to fuse the market with a clear direction but I really hope to see a strong movement up towards 16,000, form a reversal candlestick pattern on day chart and consolidate.

No trade.

DJIA on Wed 17-Jul-2013

little joy~

please come down summore~~
Good SL at 15550, moving down.

Forecast still valid.
I maintain my bearish view even though Monday market go 1 point above previous high.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 15-July-2013

Am chillin' out at starbucks while beginning my week.
Sunday is a good start except, the aircond blower is getting strong when it is passing 1pm.

I am listening to "If I should Love Again" by Nina, from the Album: Nina feat. the Hits of Barry Manilow.
It's the first time I hear the bass detail via my new toy ~ "BassBuds".

I did quite a number of thing this morning, went to church (although being late), ate the banana chocolate muffin in Starbucks (and contributed 15% to charity), bought a limited edition tumbler, successfully edited a song for my belly-kids (using freeware Audacity).

This morning is just wonderful.

Those who follow my blog knows that I have turned from short to long.
when DJIA break above point B (15350 pts), and Nasdaq 100 has definitely made new high, finally hit 3,070 pts like I mentioned earlier, and gave up earlier.
Related Post:
27-May-2013 when I am convinced Nasdaq 100 gonna make it...
3-June-2013 when I think Nasdaq 100 is not going to tough 3070

Deceived, and made changes too often..
How come our pro-traders are so sure that market is not turning down back then?
There are many questions, and there are many more to learn.

Well, pro-traders, and seasoned traders are smart, and wise.

I am lucky, even though with different market opinion, I did not lose money these two months, instead made some.

DJIA

Weekly Chart:
Bullish
Reaching Higher
Breaking above 1550 soon
and next 15850 pts.

Daily Chart:
Bearish candlestick pattern last Friday might push DJIA down to 15,280 pts, a likely rebound might seen if market were to go towards strong support at 15180 pts.

You find that my point B has not been taken out from the daily chart and the Friday candlestick pattern suggested many resistance at this point.

If market is not going to break 15,550 pts, I am still a strong believer of downturn.
If yes, market break above this level 15,550 pts, then 15,850 pts it goes.

I will prefer to short on Monday.
Initial shadow 15490 pts.
Fibo range 15500 pts
SL 15550 pts
TG 15370 pts

If market continue to fall to 15180 pts (Strong support indicated in daily chart),
and if market show support either 15280 or 15180, I would go long.

If ... market go lower, rebound with convincing pattern (may be Tuesday):
Long 15280 pts
SL 15230 pts
TG 15450 pts.

This is what I forecast for early of the week:

Nasdaq 100

Hit 3070 level (forecast in May 2013).
This is a New high in Nasdaq 100, from the technical chart, this means bullish and it is going to hit  higher.
Next target 3092.

View: Bullish.

If you planted some gung-ho seeds in me, I might want to enter long with initial shadow 3062 pts, but erm...
It is contradicting with my DJIA forecast, and I have no trade preference in this market -- give me an Asahi may be I would do it.

Strong Support 3,020 pts.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA update on Thu 11-Jul-2013

DJIA 4 hour chart

It has break previous high (marked with a curved line)
It is going to go higher towards 15550 pts now.

I abandon short for time being.
 

Gold on Sun 7-Jul-2013

I don't like this...

Gold has been falling.
And Catching a falling knife, is not fun.

From Weekly Chart, inner wave (blue) has reached 4L wave target.
Bigger downwave (black) target is $1013 - which I don't think this can happen.

I am really HOPING gold can go up.
but I need a convincing reversal candlestick pattern to enter Long.

Gold price is trading below EMA20, EMA50, and EMA200.
STRONG bear.

Stochastic is no where at low.

Monday market is tend to go lower from current price $1222.
Towards $1200 or $1170.

Let's see.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for week starting 8-July-2013

Past week is a busy week.
I went north of Malaysia on Sunday (1/7) spent two nights in Penang, then back to KL for 3 days continuous training with a lot of homework (just didn't expect my training to be this intense) and at last on Friday went to Sri Kembangan for a product demo.

This week and the following week will continue to work in two time zones, literally staying awake for whole day.
Software consulting work from 9am - 6pm, dance from 8pm-10pm, traning from 11pm-4am (next day).

I think I can rest from 4am to 7am? Can hardly imagine that.
I think I love my job.

Let's review my past week forecast.

DJIA 4 Hour Chart

Last week, early of the week the forecast went well.
Remember on Thursday, I posted that I intend to enter short when market test 15100 pts again, but if reversal didn't happen, hold it.
So I didn't enter short, I didn't even watch market that hour.
Related post: [DJIA 4-Jul-2013]

A friend from Singapore PaulC left a comment in my FB, remind me to be alert that DJIA might go to 16000 pts before melting.
Well I think I should take precaution of that too.

Let's see what I see from chart and from my Support Resistance + Fibonacci + PowerWave perspective.

Monthly Chart
July candle is bullish, hopefully it stays below 15200-300 pts and close the monthly candle below 14900 pts, it looks healthy this way for bear to breed.

Otherwise my point B will be taken out, I expect market to move higher towards 15500 pts.

Weekly Chart
If I look at the chart from bottom up, recent low at 14540 has fulfilled 1/3 retracement - which means DJIA is set to go higher, towards 16650 pts.

like this:

Daily Chart
Last Friday is an interesting trading day.
it was US Independence day holiday, many observe this holiday and off but market resumed trading towards end of the market day.

It has been falling and I thought: "yeah, its coming!"

But from 30 mins chart, market had a nice fall towards 15000 level, hit EMA200 (30M), rebounded sharply and closed with a positive candle.

Federal Reserves still have strong impact in the US market, positive economic data has been a strong factor to market confidence.

8-July, Monday, I expect market to trade higher towards 15300 pts.
Support 15020 pts.
Resistance 15200 pts.

Am still looking for opportunity to short.

Trade Plan
Intend to:
Short 15220 pts
SL 15280
TG 15040

Long 14960
SL 14900
TG 15140

Nasdaq 100

Not as bullish as Dow.

No Trade.

DJIA on Thu 4-Jul-13

This week on Dow, so far sideways Ping Pong bias down. And we are coming to Thursday.

Expect some announcements tonight and expect same movements - faster time.

For day time, I think shorting around resistance level 15,000pts can work and let's aim for a candlestick pattern with antenna top. But if it doesn't. Hold your fingers.





- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Transaction

I went out for beer with colleagues last night and 4 of us played cards and we played the "lying dices".

It's amazing to see how some people really know how to con the others. Well it's just having fun among friends and colleagues.

During the night, I turned on Interceptor and found US30 (YM or DJIA) has tested 15000 level and stochastic level went high.

And, I placed a market order to short, giving 50 pts stop loss, reminding myself of the day range is 200-250 pts... Market might go higher to 15100 then I will give up shorting.

So i think it's reasonable and justifiable to short.

Order closed just now. Made 71 pts by shorting.

Order ticket:



Side track a bit for my early week activity.

I had fun in Penang island. Had some nice hawker food.

Went to this Sisters' Fried Kueh Teow this morning.




Sisters fried kueh teow.
And we ordered food from other stalls, they are generally good, especially the Penang Hokkien Noodles (red soup is made of prawn), the red drink is nutmeg, u should try nutmeg if you come to Penang.




- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 1-July-2013

When I commit to start looking at my losing trade..
I realizes.. I commit to making the same mistake.

I went to the church this morning, visiting the church my colleague AG used to go.
The topic were not much on trading.. what surprises to me is that, during the worship I uncontrollably cried, and the tears fall like a leaking tab.

A good friend of mine, LW, he said:
"That's the hand of God, touches you. For redemption, confession".
He is just another personality that never stop surprising me.
Never underestimate someone else's pain, I am glad he has passed many tests, and challenges, and still being him, crazy fella.

Perhaps after time my wound would heal.  Perhaps after time I would embrace my limitation, and live limitless.

DJIA
Last week on DJIA, check this out:

DJIA 4 Hour Chart.

well so market went a bit higher than 2nd resistance 15000..
highest 15071 pts.

Monday market may go sideways between 14850 - 15000 pts.
If market continue to suffer below 15,071 pts, I am strong bear.
I would just love to plant shorts, and more shorts.

Aim to plant short at 15000 pts (or higher), SL slightly above high 15080.
Target exit 14850, or 14820 pts.

This is also the level where market shall find support before the next move.

Weekly Chart
From higher time frame, market still forms lower high, lower low and the power wave formation is intact.
next target to hit 14250 - 14300 pts, rebound, if the sentiment is low market might reach down to 13,900 pts in 2-3 weeks (by mid July 2013).

Nasdaq 100

I think I have double standards when it comes to Nasdaq 100 compare to DJIA.

Nasdaq 100 shall trade sideways early of week between 2880 - 2940 pts.
and there might be a potential for Nasdaq 100 to break above 2940 pts, if this happens, we expect a strong resistance at 3000 pts.

Well, I hope market capped below 2940 pts, and start the slide towards 2850 pts.
If the slide really happens, next target for this downwave is 2760 tps.

I will abandon my short view if market break above 2940 and close near 3000 pts.
This just shouldn't happen...

Cheers
Ayumi

Transaction

Gold trade closed
Tempted to Long Dow. Dropped the idea / abandoned.

Time to bed.

Order ticket:
Revised target price to 1230$ but market range diminished and I do not want to wait. Manual close and finish work for the week.



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Gold on Fri 28-June-2013

Long Gold
Entry: $1215,
Stop Loss: $1205 ($10)
Target Exit:: $1250 ($35)

How much more should Gold drop?

It has dropped far more than what I hv forecasted earlier.




Catching a falling knife is not recommended but many can't resist the temptation.

I will be the next.

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DJIA on Thu 27-Jun-2013

It's still Wednesday in US. Mid week.

The forecast went well and market is approaching EMA50 (4H) chart.

I'm expecting market to go slightly higher (above 14900) and close below with a reversal candlestick pattern.






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Gold on Mon 24-Jun-2013

Gold has fallen to 3L and appraoching 4L.

Strong support at $1260 which is only $20 away.
Stochastic is mid range so there might be room to go down from current price of $1283.

Strong resistance $1340.

I forecast market to trade sideways bias down towards $1260.
Short opportunity $1315
Long opportunity $1279
SL $8
TG $20-24 / close EOD.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for week starting 24-June-2013

I started to develop this habit of writing my forecast on a weekly basis.
And every beginning of a week, I would look back at my previous week forecast.
for week starting 17-June-2013, posted on 18-June-2013

and this is what happened:

Timing and Price is always the main clue we need to find from the chart, it is always the key to our forecast.

I am happy when my forecast for direction is right, but I am still searching the ideas to make it work for me.
I did some silly mistake last week, and a very good blogger friend shared some nice comment and made my day.
Thank you soulfire. his blog here [Xanga]

We are at the final week of June 2013.

Monthly Chart:

monthly candle is looking ugly already...
there would be some shadow below, before the close of this month's candle.

So I forecast the last trading week, DJIA break below previous month low (14690 pts), preferably test 14570 pts;
and close around 14750 pts.

Weekly Chart:

I reckon market to trade in a narrow range this week, bias down to test support 14570 pts, lowest to go 14460 pts.

Then rebound up to resistance 14850 pts before closing at 14750 pts again.
Strong resistance at 15000 pts, if market really reaches 15000 pts, I want to initiate short coupled with EMA50 strategy in 4H chart.

I would say there's nothing much this week, until a strong short signal prevails.

Nasdaq 100

Bearish

This week, Nasdaq 100 may continue to start the week falling towards 2850 pts.
There is a potential to rebound near 2850 pts, to bring Nasdaq 100 back up to 2900 pts, or strong resistance 2930 pts.

The bearish sentiment should stick unto Nasdaq 100 until end of July 2013.

I forecast Nasdaq 100 to fall towards 2757 pts, then 2680 pts, it should not break below 2580 pts to resume uptrend.

Cheers
Ayumi

Learn from Losing

Part 2

Ops I did it again.

This time the scenario is slightly worse...

The confirmation in 1 hour chart is good.
I queued to Long at 14890 pts, order filled at 11pm (GMT+8, SG/MY time), 11am DJIA time.

I parked my stop loss at 60 pts away, target profit at 100 pts away.
By looking at this chart, you know, I am right, and I am suppose to be happily making profit.
Ironically...

NO

I entered this trade with my live account, which I have withdrawn my money, leaving not more than $150 in this account.
Market continue to fall, and account margin hit.
Both my exit price were cancelled automatically, system closed my position at 14852 pts.
Loss $37.

I am terribly sorry to myself.
Who is the stupidest of all to enter into a trade with an account can't sustain $60 and get triggered?
Me
Who is the stupidest of all to enter into a trade with Live account while she has promised not to do that in 2013?
Me

That's gotta be me.
$37
Worth so many hamburgers...

Related Post:
Part 1 of my Learn from Losing [Link]

DJIA on Thu 20-Jun-2013

Can it hit 750 this week?

Nice down !!

Yuppie Happie

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DJIA and Nasdaq 100

For the week starting 17 June 2013

It's Tuesday today and I just got back to my desk to start work. Many emails and updates.

It's choppy on the DJIA chart last week.

See day chart.




Weekly chart captured on Tuesday 3:15pm (GMT+8)




I shall post my forecast tonight.


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When I view my blog I get to see a lot of squares and rectangular without chart, and the font size went haywire.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 17 June 2013

Looking at weekly chart, we have two reversal candlestick pattern for mid May and end May 2013.

followed by two long shadow candle for 1st and 2nd week of June.

Coming into 3rd week of June, now what?

Market has corrected for 700 pts and recovered more than 400 pts as of now at 12am, GMT+8 / 12pm, ET.

I have two contrary view this week, market shall continue choppy sessions, to break above 15,300 pts, then test resistance 15,400 pts.

Major Support 14850 pts.

hence for this week I will trade with Fibo Range.

For Tuesday:

Short 15301 pts - 15320 pts

SL 15350 pts - 15375 pts

TG 15150 pts.

Long 15090 - 15100 pts

SL 15030 pts

TG 15300 pts.

Nasdaq 100

From Weekly chart, Nasdaq 100 outlook is relatively bearish as I compare to DJIA.

Resistance at recent high 3005 pts.

Support 2,965 pts.

Fibo Range

Short 2995 - 3000 pts.

SL 3001 pts

TG 2960 pts

Long 2950 pts

SL 2930 pts

TG 2980 pts.

FX Updates

I am thrilled...

Look at the gravity..

USD/JPY

Daily Chart

USD/JPY

4 Hour Chart

The Yen currency has devalued to a point where a correction is needed.

I think USD/JPY still have range to fall, towards 93.00.

However, any fundamental changes would help to end this correction early.
I forecast market to resume uptrend to 104.20, and 106.30 after correction.

USDX

Take a look at US Dollar Index Daily Chart..

Market has fallen to EMA200, and some slim shadow over here... hope EMA200 (gold dash-dot line) work as a net - for USDX to bounce off to 82.00 then 82.70.

I reckon a sideways bias up movement for USDX.

Forecast market to resume downtrend after this bounce, towards 81.00 then 80.00 before July 2013.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 10 June 2013

Market has come to a pattern which many reversal traders like to participate.

Weekly Chart:
After two reversal candlestick pattern in mid May and end of May 2013, market fall for 299 pts last week and closed above the weekly opening.

Daily Chart:
It is exciting to see market found support at 1/3 fibo level strongly, and rebounded - can I say uptrend is likely to continue?

Check the first correction in April 2013, and current correction - I hope it will be a guide if you are bullish.
Take precaution as on weekly chart, there is a lower low, and relatively lower high, if market breaking below 14,843 pts this month, bear will take control and send DJIA down to 14750, 14650 pts.

From intraday chart, I could do a quick forecast for coming trading day (Monday).

Bullish day candle shall sends DJIA higher but limit to 15310 pts resistant.
strong resistance 15400.
Breaking above 15400 pts I would abandon hunting short but watch closely how market break recent high to reach 15850 pts.

from 4 Hour chart, EMA50 has turned from resistance to a fighting line between bull and bear.
I prefer to trade at extreme ends.

Short 15290 pts, close EOD.
Long 15010 pts, close EOD.

Nasdaq 100

From intraday chart, Nasdaq 100 and DJIA pattern is slightly contradicting..

from 4 Hour chart, based on the candlestick pattern, I am a strong believer Nasdaq 100 would continue going down.

Rooftop resistance 3000 pts.

Support 2945
TG 2890

If Nasdaq100 were to go north, it must break above 3000 pts this week, and stay above 3030 pts for rest of this month.

Cheers
Ayumi