Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Gold on 29-11-2011 Tue

Weekly outlook: Neutral

Forecast market to test resistance 1728-1730 today before coming down to lower band 1666-1670.

Might spot for shorting opportunity tomorrow near the said resistance 1728 - 1730.

Monday, November 28, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

I have tried multiple ways to access the charts and finally it does… I think MT5 have been updating its client base and therefore my account is sort of deactivated after a period of time.
MT4 is working fine…


Quick look at what had happened last week:
Last week DJIA open at 11647.66, gap down, and no pull up, last Friday 25-Nov-2011, DJIA closed at 11,231.78. It was a short trading week, but the falling range is big DJIA shed 415.88 points in a week.

From the technical chart, if we plot Fibonacci Retracement Level from Oct-2011 Low 10404 to recent high 12285, we realized that DJIA has come to a major Fibonacci Retracement Level, which suggest a halt of bearish momentum.

With the worsen Euro zone debt crisis, this support level might just hold for few trading days before DJIA attempt to break lower to 11000 or 10800 level.

Daily Chart: With two small star candles, there is a potential technical rebound to 11500-11550.
For YM on Broco chart, technical rebound to 11450-11500.

4 hour chart: similarly, hunt for Short opportunity at EMA50 which is at the same level 11500 region.

Therefore for short term trading on Monday, I favor Long at 11190 SL 11140 TG 11390.
For YM on Broco chart, Long at 11290 SL 11240 TG 11490.

Hunt for another short opportunity after the technical rebound complete, target the next phase of fall will reach 11000 to 10800 points.


Witness the falling knife in NASDAQ 100, Nasdaq100 opened with a wide gap down of 30 points and shed 69 points from the week’s opening. If we were sitting in opposite direction, definitely the gap hurts!

Coming up this week, with Nasdaq100 traded below EMA200 on daily chart, market is bearish.

4 hour chart: upon touching 2150, market has fulfilled PowerWave wave target price. Technically NASDAQ100 will rebound to 2280, however, with the worsen fundamentals in Euro zone which trigger selling pressure; we reckon the immediate resistance at 2230.

In short, for beginning of this week, we reckon technical rebound up to 2230, and hunt for next shorting opportunity at 2230 or 2280 level. Target exit for short is 2050.

Weekly Forecast (FX)

Good morning traders! Sorry my forecast is late for the week...

I had a wonderful weekend at KL Performing Arts Center with a Hungarian teacher, she is amazing and she shared her life experience; She love Malaysia - it is an amazing country, she traveled so many places but never seen a beautiful country like here, with more than 4 religion in the same land, and we can still see the same street with Mosque, Hindu Temple, Buddhist temple, Church...

She shared her life during world war and how the country has been teared off and how Hungarian being pressured... and due to that Hungarian is sensitive, artistic... :) So I am thankful for this wonderful land we are living, and please treasure every moment, and live our life to the fullest!


While I have started the chart, market has gap up and bullish candle has formed.
I do not know it is a technical rebound but I think this bullish sentiment is going to be short lived.

After falling for past two weeks, without breaking below 1.5400, market is going to consolidate between 1.5400 support and resistance 1.5750-800.

I reckon market to move slowly up to 1.5650 early of this week until mid-week (butterfly pattern in 1 hour chart confirms the reversal).

The consolidation might last for a week or two, main resistance 1.5750-800.

However, if market couldn't survive above 1.5400 support, then it is going to fall to our next target 1.5250.


Weekly chart: 4 black candle on weekly chart, major support 1.3150.

Daily chart: bearish

4 Hour chart: bearish

1 Hour chart: butterfly pattern has formed. Suggest a short term technical rebound.

Resistance 2: 1.3730
Resistance 1.3430
Support 1: 1.3150-1.3200
Support2: 1.3050

Market has been trading below EAM50 on 4 hour chart which means bearish. With the butterfly pattern in 1 hour chart, it suggests a short term technical rebound to immediate resistance 1.3430.

However, after falling for 4 weeks, market may trade in consolidation for 2 weeks before the next trend emerge. Be patient and wait for trading opportunity at main support / resistance.

Sunday, November 20, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Every week when I look at the chart, I would ask myself, is my view still valid?
Will I see it differently this time?

And when I just about to start the forecast for the week, I start to doubt myself:
Why would I call for waterfall?

For those who followed my post, I think you may want to throw a stone. ^_< hahaha although last week market tumbled and we make some money, it doesn’t mean that we will be right all the time. I keep questioning myself again and again until I finally “decide” what I want to do next, I accept my forecast for the week, and whether market *really* move in favor, or opposite, It is not in my control. We always need to *decide*, and if we are right, we *catch*, and we *ride*. We always need to *plan*. A famous US cabaret style belly dancer – Sandra, she teach me to “decide”, and “plan” your next move. I remember mentor JC told me the same, “Fail to Plan = Plan to fail”. So, back to the week’s forecast, I may be right, I may be wrong. Let’s see! DJIA

Economic Data mixed, US economy starts to stabilize, with lower unemployment claims, housing start drops, producer price decline, and retail sale climbed showing mild demand… read our Weekly Report by Sifu.

It is not easy to forecast the market direction based on fundamental news… there are simply too many news and I don’t know which one to follow, I think many traders confused also. XD
So I stick to technical forecast and our PowerWave.

Daily chart: Consolidation. DJIA traded very close to its 200 days EMA.
4 Hour chart: market has traded below EMA50 which means the bullish sentiment has shifted to a lower gear.

For the past 3 weeks, DJIA was trading in a narrowing channel (symmetrical triangle), with DJIA traded below 11900, it signals the bottom support line has been compromised and it has temporary became its resistance. Check 4 Hour Chart.

We expect market to be quiet for the beginning of 21-Nov-11 week.
Resistance: 11900.
Support: 11680.

We favor to short at the resistance 11900, SL around 11960, Target at support 11680.
For YM on Broco Cont chart (last traded 11767): Short 11930, SL 12000, TG 11650.


NASDAQ 100 has fallen below the group support level 2280 and we expect the bearish sentiment to continue on Monday, next strong support for Nasdaq 100 is 2220 which is approximately 30 points away.

Daily Trading to Short at 15 pts. away from opening, Stop Loss 15 pts. away, Target 2225-2220 (to fill the gap in October-2011).

Weekly Forecast (FX)

Weekly candle: bearish
Daily candle: potential reversal on Thursday and Friday, but selling pressure hit hard when EUR/USD tries to break above 1.3600, highest 1.3613. Close at 1.3514.

4 Hour chart: bearish

Daily entry: Short with initial shadow.

Trading Plan:
Short 1.3550, SL 1.3600 (50 pips),
TG: 1.3370 (180 pips).


I was bullish on GBP/USD since two weeks ago and my monthly outlook was to wait for GBP/USD to breakout to the top and hit 1.6350.

However, market consolidated for 2 weeks (week 31/10, and week 7/11), resisted at 1.6160 and supported at 1.5860.

Finally last week, GBP/USD broke below major support 1.5860 and last traded at 1.5794.

It is not as per what I have expected the market to be... and so... I choose to trade the opposite direction === to sell GBP/USD the following week :)

The support we identified 1.5860 has turned to resistance and market should find current support at 1.5700.
Breaking below this current support 1.5700, GBP/USD will fall to 1.5560.

Daily Trading:
Short 1.5830, SL 1.5870 (slightly above the identified resistance),
TG1: 1.5700.
TG2: 1.5560.

Friday, November 18, 2011

Quick Update on YM

Like what we have forecasted on DJIA.
This is a very very profitable trading week.

We short YM at 12165, and SL 12235 (yes, a bigger SL fo 70 pts), but market also fulfilled the whole range of 465 pts TG 11700 last night!

Clap clap!! It is a turnaround to most of the trading account, isn't it? although my next target is 12600, this trade has doubled the account (scary for those who were on the opposite side of trade but didn't put a stop loss).

So, the trade was closed, happily taken the money and today will go out with my nephew and sister-in-law. Family day.

Monday, November 14, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Good day fellow traders


2 weeks ago, DJIA hit 12284 pts. resistance, market tumbled more than 300 pts. to 11630 and currently consolidate in big range, last traded at 12153.70.

Remember the magic number 80? For PowerWave Trades, plot your Fibo Retracement and check the magic on your own.
80 in weekly chart, works.
80 in daily chart, works.

So we will use the same concept in 4 hour chart to hunt for trading opportunities.
Identify Resistance: 12190 (adjusted 40pts higher from last week forecast)
Support: 11730
Major Support: 11650 (Sarah support the same view)

Quote from last week:
P/s: if the bull is strong, we may see market test previous resistance 12288, break above it and form a marginal top @ 12450-500 region before the waterfall begins.
So let's say if 12288 couldn't stop the bull, we might see the market drive up all the way to 12450, so, abandon your shorts if this resistance fails.

Aggressive Short at initial shadow 12180, SL 12250-280, TG 11730, TG2 11650.
For YM on Broco Chart: Short 12165, SL 12235, TG 11700, TG2 11600.

Nasdaq 100

Market trading in big range.
Key Resistance: 2408
Key Support: 2280

Nasdaq 100 closed at 2350 - We expect market to continue the bullish strength towards 2382 on Monday.

Hunt for shorting opportunity when Nasdaq 100 trading near key resistance 2408. Similar to Dow, if market break above 2408, then it might go north to 2435. Abandon short if the resistance fails.

Saturday, November 12, 2011

GBP/USD on 14-Nov-2011 Mon


Monthly outlook: same, consolidation with bullish bias towards 1.6350.
Weekly Candle: 2nd indecisive candle on weekly chart, market testing important support / resistance level.

Lets look at the same chart... Daily Chart for GBP/USD

Important Resistance level: 1.6160
Important Support level: 1.5860

Last week, GBP/USD attempt to test 1.6160, but resisted at 1.6130 and came down to 1.5866 without touching either the identified support / resistance level.

In fact, I chicken out to buy when market form a bearish candle on Wednesday, it is very close to support level... However, on Thursday market form a doji, and a positive candle on Friday.

So, it is the market doing consolidation, and fulfilled the initial shadow for November month candle.

From monthly outlook, I am bullish, but patiently waiting for breakout to the top, target 1.6350.

Intraday chart (4 Hour)

Definitely a consolidation pattern.
And as per the chart, even after missing the opportunity to long near support 1.5860, we can capture long opportunity at the mid point 1.5990, with a bigger risk tolerance level...

Day Trade:
Aggressive Long at initial shadow (40 pips) 1.6020. SL 1.5970, TG 1.6150 (or EOD).

Position Trade:
Long at 1.5980 SL 1.5900 TG 1.6350.

GBP/USD on 11-Nov
GBP/USD on 8-Nov

Friday, November 11, 2011

the Days...

Remember the days when I just began trading, yeah we have some amateur investors, trying to become traders.

Back then, when I just started, I remember a friend told me:
"You want to commit suicide, jump down from a 20 floor building is faster, and easier, never attempt trading".
*So trading have a BAD name?*

That friend attended the same business school... yes, he is good in business, properties... but I don't understand why he rejects stocks.  I just started with stocks.
I never attend any courses back then.. just regularly attend seminars, talks, market updates, and read a lot of investopedia, learn from the chart..

Friends who were trading together, they don't trade anymore now.
When I move on to Futures, I have different group of friends, but they were still some investors trading stocks, and I only have 1 very successful futures trader friend.  He also stopped trading futures now.  He is successful, but he don't trade now.  Tax is high in US... :)

I meet some guys at the seminar, and they trade, everyday, every hour when the market is open, I am glad that I know them, at least, I know, there are still plenty of people in the derivatives market, successful trading, is not alone...
That is before I meet Sifu DAR.
I try to trade with them, but there're conditions, I need to pass certain exams... I need to become a licensed broker... need to be cool.
I can never become a broker, I never study enough, and I never have the guts to go back to school and get a degree... *sorry*
So, we can only say Hi, and recommend each other some friends and resources.

So, I continue to blog.  I blog since 2005, started with some Chinese blogging, articles, movies.. life related stuff, then seriously into trading stuff since 2007... (It has been so long).

So keeping a journal works.  You can always go back, and check your mental state, remind yourself that you have traveled so far, so consistently, so strongly, step by step moving forward.

Don't GIVE UP, Keep GOING.

Today I receive a link from a blogger friend.. its a youtube video, about floor trading, the title is "Floored".. Google it if you want to see.  It got me thinking so much...

Electronic trading, is cool.
You can trade whenever you are available, you can trade wherever you like, can be Bali, can be Malaysia, can be China, can be Melbourne.. you can TRADE.

It is cool.
It gives us total freedom, but the price to pay?
Very little, except if you like to trade with a BIG group of people, yelling and shouting together.

It is the same world here, and out there, I used to have some friends, trading... and left.
I wish you come back soon, and lets trade.

Ayumi getting moody

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Updates on 11-Nov-2011


Unable to break above resistance 1.3860, and last night EUR/USD break below support 1.3600. EUR/USD shift to a bearish gear to test next support 1.3500 and strong support 1.3400.


I am 1 day early to short the market... and just missed the 400 points range.
I expect market to consolidate a bit while testing support 11570.

If YM continue to drop below 11570, then shall hit target 11450 soon.
Enter with Fibo range:
Long 11600 SL11550 TG 11850 (or EOD)
Short 12000 SL 12050 TG 11800 (or EOD)

Aggressive trade, Enter with Initial Shadow:
Short 11750 SL 11800 TG 11450.


For some readers who follow the previous post, I am looking forward to GBP/USD hitting above 1.6160, however, with the market being resisted at 1.6130 and close near support, I abandon my long.

Expect market to test support 1.5860 (previous 1/3 retracement).

If we switch the chart upside down, it might also signal the start of the GBP/USD melt...
I take no action to long nor short but wait.

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

GBP/USD on 8-Nov-11 Tue

Monthly Chart: consolidation with bullish bias
Weekly Chart: 1st bearish candle after 3 consecutive winnings.
Daily Chart: Bullish - fulfilled 1/3 retracement.

From the bullish outlook on the daily chart, GBP/USD has completed its 1/3 retracement on last Thursday (3/11). If this support level 1.5860 is holding up strongly without being re-test again this week, then we shall observe GBP/USD testing last week high 1.6160, once it break above 1.6160 then set to go to next target 1.6350.

Intraday 4 hour chart:
GBP/USD has found a temporary support at 1.6000 region, has been bouncing off the EMA50 support lines, which means, after the retracement, market consolidate and once breakout (BKO) it is ready to go.

GBP/USD is trading at 1.6050, and I am going to trade aggressively today to enter with initial shadow, coupled with EMA50 short term trading strategy.

Yes, there might be two entries if market show us these realiable pattern.

Position Trade:
Long 1.6007
SL 1.5950 (50 pips)
Target 1.6310 (300 pips)

Today going out to watch Real Steel, I think this movie has been showing for quite some time.

And I couldn't trade from my mobile recently (for IG), I don't know why, may be they blocked access to certain websites.... aiks... I think I have to bring my laptop out with me...
I find this broker quite reliable (till date) and do not want to change any time soon.

Monday, November 7, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Hi all, sorry that the update is rather late this week, I were busy for the weekend coaching, attending my friend's dance studio opening, a few gathering and meetings, cutting cakes, pot luck... the weekend is simply --- packed and filled with a lot of blessings.

I hope all have enjoyed a great weekend, and those who are celebrating Hari Raya Haji (Malaysia & Singapore) have fun! Today is the last day of the long holiday, let’s make it count!

Wall Street:
We have NFP announcement last week, job creation is only 80k numbers, and the numbers indicating a rather stagnant job growth, unemployment rate is dropped to six months low (yey!) 9%, previous month 9.1%.

There are many other part of the world actually has higher unemployment... Spain 20.5% (September 2011), Euro Zone 10.2%.
P/s Malaysia: 3.1%. (August 2011)

Related: http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/index.php?lang=en
Latest Data here http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=275%3Anational-summary-data-page-real-sector&catid=91%3Ansdp&lang=en


For power wave traders, you'll recognize that 80 is a good number for DJIA.
Previous week Dow hit to 12288, and last week in line with MF Global news, market tumbled, shed more than 550 points in two days, and recovered 50% on Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday is a neutral trading day and as usual we stay out of NFP.

What do we expect next?

From a smaller time frame, I am expecting market to recover up to 12150 region (another number 80, hey!)

P/s: if the bull is strong, we may see market test previous resistance 12288, break above it and form a marginal top @ 12450-500 region before the waterfall begins.

This week is a crucial week to watch for reversal, divergence, resistance, etc. etc. to catch the south train... can you smell it? Mid November we expect the rise to HALT, and I am EXCITED!!!

Short Term daily trading, Monday view: Consolidation bias up - Enter with Fibo Range:
Entry for YM (on my Broco MT4 CONT chart):
Long 11750
Short 12130

On IG Wall Street CFD:
Long 11810
Short 12190

And I will park another short at 12150 / 12210 for position trade.

Last week Day 1: Gap down, Day 2: Down, Day 3: Gap up, close gap, Day 4: gap up, Day 5: neutral...

Support: 2330
Monday: consolidation bias up to test resistance 2370. Nasdaq 100 trading at 2360 so the profit range is too small compare to the risk levels... (Risk 30 points: Reward 10 points), let’s say market return to 2nd resistance 2390 the risk is still less than 1:2... So I suggest to stay out of this market and wait for divergence / reversal pattern to form either at R1: 2370, or R2: 2390 by mid/end of this week.

Thursday, November 3, 2011

Transaction (FX)

Yesterday position closed.
Last night opened another position after BKO, Short position opened @ 1.5945, earlier preset SL 40 pips but manage to move SL to entry (floating profit 50 pips), target shift to 1.5800 (145 pips).

Last night shorted YM, and very bearish after CNN announcement (forgot what was the news bcz I am half way sleeping), I shifted my SL to entry but market reversed and killed my position.

Market has fulfilled 1/3 retracement after the week's fall and I believe the market will continue consolidate for a while, going to test Tuesday low again near 11550 region.
Resistance at 11800.

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Transaction (FX)

Short GBP/USD at 1.6020, SL 30 pips (1.6050) TG 140 pips (1.5880).

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

MF Global file for bankruptcy on Monday 31-Oct-2011

Regulators Investigating MF Global for Missing Money
9:55 p.m. | Updated
Federal regulators have discovered that hundreds of millions of dollars in customer money has gone missing from MF Global in recent days, prompting an investigation into the brokerage firm, which is run by Jon S. Corzine, the former New Jersey governor, several people briefed on the matter said on Monday.