Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Quick Update on FX


Shorted at 1.6030 this afternoon, SL 1.6060 (moved to 1.6023), TG 1.5940 (moved to 1.5950).

From 4 Hour Chart, observed pincer bottom (again), would GBP/USD finally reverse and retrace to 1.6080, or 1.6150 tomorrow?

Related: Weekly Forecast (FX)

Demo vs Live Account

Have summarised Previous Week's Trade into my P&L.

Realised the Big difference between Demo Trades vs Live Trading.

Although my Live Trading Account has recovered to a comfortable level, but I am still figuring the challenge most traders face: changing their trading plans.

Demo trade, we simply don't care...

Live trade, we face the pressure of real money, although I am comfortable with my trade setup, but I am not yet comfortable with the $$$.

I get emotional and the blood starts to boil down to my nerves when the fundamentals hit, especially on 16-Mar-2011, the 2nd day after Japan Tsunami.

Still not able to get over.... but trying hard and digging deep to find out the answers.
Congratulate to myself - at least I know better now. Yes?

July/August-2011, I am coming.
I will become better, I will know myself better, I can manage myself better.

I will improve my setup consistency, I understand that no man is perfect, I will continue to work hard, to become better, to do my best.

Weekly Forecast (FX)


Resisted by the monthly trendline, and had a sharp fall last week.
Last Friday 25/3/2011, EUR/USD formed a bearish signal (bearish engulfing), closed at 1.4087 after a session low of 1.4054.

Yesterday (Monday 28/3/2011), EUR/USD open gap down and trading in small range, made a new low to 1.4020, but covered the gap in Euro session, continue to climb to 1.4085 last Friday closing.

EUR/USD has break below the daily trendline but successfully stayed above the line after a day's fight.

Bull or Bear?

Short Term EUR/USD slightly bullish: capped at resistance 1.4155 (2L), Supported by session low 1.4020. Long trading at BKO 1.4085, SL 1.4020 session low (65 pips), aim for 1.4155 (70 pips), and 1.4180 - 1.4220 (135 pips)? doesn't sound to be a cool risk : reward...

Undecided on which side to stand, my best choice is to
Stay out....


Never seen anything like this....

Finally GBP/USD has returned to the 150 day range territory!
bearish, and previous support (tripple bottom) @ 1.5975 doesn't make sense to me now...
GBP/USD just created a gap down, session low at 1.5932 and trading at 1.5990.

Next support 1.5820, 750, 1.5650.

Intraday Pick short at 1.6020, SL 1.6050 (-30), 1st Exit @ 1.5930 (90), 2nd Exit 1.5820 (200).
or Short @ 1.6080 (1/3 retracement) with 60 pips SL for ultimate exit 1.5650.

Monday, March 28, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Helped by a rise in tech shares after an upbeat outlook from Oracle Corp the day before, the index notched its best week in two months. But low volume spurred questions about the equities rally's strength.


Current support 12195, current resistance 12300, strong resistance 12400 (previous high).

DJIA has resumed its uptrend after a steep correction to 11560 region, strong support is now at 12000, which is a key level to watch out for trend reversal.

Bullish momentum: DJIA is going to test previous high 12400 but may face a little resistance at 12300, intraday long when the index is trading at 12200-12195, aim at 12300 as first exit.

Urge cautious at 12400, act on reversal or breakout.

Nasdaq 100

Current Support 2310, current resistance 2375, strong resistance 2400 (previous high).

Slightly bullish: Nasdaq 100 is going to test previous high 2400 but have faced resistance at 2330, intraday long when the index is trading at 2310-00, SL 2285, aim at 2330 as first exit, 2nd exit 2360, 3rd exit 2375.

Sunday, March 27, 2011

Gold and Silver on 28-Mar-2011 (Mon)


With Gold resisted at 1450 region (Highest 1448 on last Thursday 24/3). Next week outlook is bearish, short at 1438 - 1432 top region and expect Gold to find support near 1417, 1407 respectively.

Stop Loss should be last week's high 1448.


Similarly, Short at top region 37.77-37.88, SL 38.17.
Expect support near 36.85, then 35.90 - 36, and lastly 35.

Thursday, March 24, 2011

GBP/USD Found support

Closed the short position at 1.6210 this afternoon. Short from 1.6380.

Observed a pincer bottom on 4 hour chart, GBP/USD has found a temporary support and going to rebound.
Expect to short at Fibonacci Retracement Level 50%, which is around 1.6260 - 1.6300.
Reckon GBP/USD to consolidate before breaking out to the bottom.
Hence, the best is to trade for intraday position using Fibo Levels for these two days, at the same time, hunt for a short position around 1.6300 and carry the position over weekend.

Expect GBP/USD to dip further to 1.6050, therefore, from 1.6300, expect to close the position near 1.6100 region.

Pointing the way

Quote from the Daily Motivator http://greatday.com/motivate/110321.html

What seems to be standing in your way is not really standing in your way. It’s pointing the way.

What looks like it’s holding you back is not really holding you back. It’s building your determination to move forward.

The mountain is steep and treacherous, yet it gives you a pathway to get to the top. The work is challenging and complicated, and yet it gives you a way to create achievement.

Don’t you dare despair when things get tough. Rejoice in knowing that the reason you’re encountering so much resistance is because you’re moving so powerfully ahead.

Look in the direction from where the resistance is coming. That’s where value lives.

Feel your determination as it grows stronger each time you push forward. Now you have what it takes to bring great things to life.

— Ralph Marston

Read more: http://greatday.com/motivate/110321.html#ixzz1HTUGruk2

Sunday, March 20, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) on Mon 21-Mar-2011

Due to the fundamental factors in Japan, DJIA fell sharply early of the week, until it found support near 11550 region, rebounded and make gains later part of the week.

Resistance: 12000
Support: 11800
Support: 11600

Last week, we mentioned that
Once DJIA break below 11950, next will be a minor support 11800 and a strong support at 11600.
I almost wanted to enter long 11600 region, but I hesitated, and this opportunity evaporated.. While I always encourage trading at key support or resistance, this is also a tough decision to make!  :)
I believe through continuous practice, crisp market sense, a set of skills will develop and it will be with us forever, a set of good trading habits will develop, consistent results from trading will be the greatest gift we can give to ourselves, and provide to the family and community.

This week I anticipate DJIA to trade in small range capped within 12000 - 11800.  If by any chance DJIA making marginal low and trade below 11800, observe for Long opportunity near 11750.  SL 11680, Target 11900-11980 (EMA50 in 4H chart).  Breaking above 12000 will be the resume of uptrend and 12300 will be the desired level to take profit.
Although from the chart I think it is not likely to happen, but on the flip side, considering the development of news from Japan and Libya, if DJIA trade below last week's low, expect DJIA to hit 2L 11470.

Nasdaq 100 on Monday 21-Mar-2011

Similar to DJIA, Nasdaq 100 found good support at 1/3 Fibo retracement level, which 2200.
This level 2200 will be a good level to watch for Long trade, SL 2185 (slightly below last week's low @ 2189).  Aim your target exit at 2295 - 2300.

Related: DJIA and Nasdaq 100 on 13-Mar-2011

Blackforest Mocha, and my Purchase of the Month

Today's menu:
Black Forest cherries/chocolate covered espresso beans (Mocha)

Secondly, to my surprise, I found a shop selling Belly Dance Album, and I spotted Sandra has the album cover!
Saw Arabian Nights volume 5, volume 6 which is selling at 50, but the Belly Beat album is selling at 60! Less songs, more price.

Price vs Value again... I have chosen the Belly Beat (with Sandra as cover), I approached to the counter, the assistant guided me to the testing station and let me test the album!
Wow, this service is superb! Never encounter this .. ok, insert the CD, and the music starts, I do not know how to express my feeling, I m happy, I am excited and I think this would be the 'purchase of the month' ^.^

Gold on Mon 21-Mar-2011

This morning when I wake up, the first message that comes to me....
US launches missiles to Libya
Source: CNBC

Last week, Gold has dipped to lowest 1417.81 and it has completed the correction (50% Fibo Retracement) required before it continues to pierce to new high.

Recall earlier posts on Gold:

Till then we will observe for opportunity to hunt for Long in the Gold market, my annual target for Gold lies at 1600-20.

Link: Gold Forecast on 7-Mar-2011

Remember the annual target for Gold is to the upside, therefore, trading long is the best decision, we can only short when Gold is trading at major resistance or with clear bearish chart pattern like last Head and Shoulder in January.

ATR = 20
Key Resistance: 1445
Resistance 1: 1425
Support 1: 1385
Key Support: 1365

Gold in consolidation, probably Monday and Tuesday will face some resistance at 1425, observe for Long opportunity if the resistance pull Gold down to support at 1385.

If Gold break out from either end, the next level will be key resistance 1445, and key support 1365 respectively.

My preference is hunt for Long when Gold find support at 1385, SL secured at 1380 slightly below 15-Mar-2011 (last Tuesday Low).

Meeting for ATIC

We have a meeting yesterday with the team for coming ATIC on 2nd-3rd April 2011.

APSRI is currently doing promotions until the 1st day of ATIC for early bird sign up for the brand new 6 months program.

There will be 4 class room meeting sessions, 1 live trading session, and 6 months tutorial sessions for those who want to be trained by real trader like Sifu, and the master coaches.

When we call it Real traders... I remembered how mentor JC explains... there are also many Textbook traders out there... such a new term for me... the definition of a Real traders, put it in the most simple format, honestly, we know what we do.

Take complete responsibilities of our own trading account.

Having able to meet the team, and meeting Mentor JC, and Master Lam from Nikkei 225, we feel the passion as a trader, we feel the hardwork and effort that one must go through... Don't give up, and continue to work hard.  Do it consistently, employ the most simple, clear trading setup, Entry, SL, Exit.. and most importantly, Sifu's 3-N Rule:

3-N Rule:

Never think the market is wrong!
Never sit on a losing position!
Never trade if you are confused!

Cheers to the wonderful Sunday afternoon, here I mark the start of this week's reflection, compile charts, and forecast.

Friday, March 18, 2011

Change View EUR/USD

All my previous postings were on EUR/USD shorting opportunity at 1.4000-1.3980 region.
With the convincing bullish candle crossing above 1.4000 region, in line with the sentiment, I am bullish on EURUSD.

Check in Daily chart, EUR/USD has completed a Fibo Retracement level 50% and rebounded (Fibo Retracement on Labelled wave only), currently crossing above 1.4000 region.

My view is bullish, EUR/USD towards 1.4250.
My trading plan for today: 
Long EUR/USD at 1.3970, SL 1.3930 (50% of yesterday's candle), TG 1.4070-1.4100 (ATR 120).

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Quick Update on FX


Overhead trend line resistance coincide with Fibo Retracement Level, expect resistance at 81.20-30, USD/JPY may retrace a little bit, and plunge to new low this evening.
Expect support at 80.30.


Bull or Bear?

From the week chart, EUR/USD currently resisted at the weekly trend line, if EUR/USD break above 1.4035 high, and close above the yellow line (1.3980), EUR/USD is going to challenge another top 1.4250.

Without breaking above previous high 1.4035, it gives us good opportunity to short EUR/USD. I have shorted 3 times, 1st time I have been triggered 30 pips, 2nd time I squared my position at 7 pips, and 3rd time which is last night, triggered 30 pips.

I regard 1.4035 is a crucial level to watch, many price action has been around this level, I believe the ding-dong will continue to test this top for another 3 rounds today, before a meaningful breakout happen.

The above chart indicates my preferred breakout pattern, and the area which I wanted to short and take profit, hope that this time we can get in, and ride the profit.

Intraday Short 1.4008, SL 30pips, TG 1.3900.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011


说Ben Tam Ban (谭斌)在死前已经答应他女友要做正行,并且注册了一支防毒软件。












Simple and Consistent

I was reading and clearing my mailbox while waiting for my turn to submit a registration form.
The Registration office is packed with Chinese, Malay and Indians... this multi-racial country is a beautiful place, everyone of the nation will know 2 languages, minimum.

I come across Dr. Van Tharp's newsletter, and this topic is : Simplicity and Consistency as an Individual Trader, by R.J. Hixson.

quote the final line of this article:
Moving Forward with These Themes in Mind
So simplicity and consistency are the themes for me this year. As I rewrote my trading plan, my individual trader identity helped me keep simplicity and consistency front of mind as I changed my combination of trading systems, wrote rules on when to start and when to stop trading systems, fleshed out my position sizing strategies and set my annual goals. If my plans are simple and my execution is consistent, I believe I will see better results this coming year.
Not surprisingly, my goals this year are very simple and require consistency. They are simple in that each of them is done on a daily basis and none of them need much time, strategizing, or complex planning. They require consistency in that I do them every day. The approach reminded of my son’s karate kata.

Kata is a choreographed series of moves that martial arts students practice and perfect. They are not necessarily complex movements (although the complexity or length increases by level) and the focus is on perfect execution. I never gave kata much credit until I saw my son’s sensei perform one. He is an advanced degree black belt and never before had I seen a human move so fast or with such precision. I watched with amazement, and a bit of fear, as I gained a newfound respect for my son’s sensei that day. I also learned to appreciate the impressive results that can come from practicing a humble kata.

This year for my annual goals, I’ll be practicing a set of katas of sorts every day with a focus on simplicity and consistency.
Take care and trade well.

Sunday, March 13, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Refer to our previous week posting, we mentioned that DJIA currently trading near EMA50 in the 4Hour Chart, we at Ayumi the Novice Trader said that:

Those who observe the 4H chart, will start to see the bull and bear fighting near EMA50 line, in which, I believe market will continue to try to balance out in big range in the coming week before a meaningful breakout is observed!
As per our forecast, DJIA continue a whipsaw week, and make traders who were trading at the mid-range will suffer the roller-coaster ride, while traders who trade Long at 12050 with SL 11970 will be happy to grab the profit of 150 pts!

Related post: DJIA and Nasdaq 100 on 7-Mar-2011

We maintain our same view that DJIA will be in big range before a meaningful breakout is observed.
Watch the key support @ 11950-12000 and resistance @ 12400, waiting for the breakout.

Once DJIA break below 11950, next will be a minor support 11800 and a strong support at 11600.  Traders can initiate trade based on BKO with SL based on Friday high 12100-12050.

Breaking above 12300, watch the development of Trapezium, and hunt for short opportunities at 12450.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 turns out to be trading in the direction during Monday, Nasdaq 100 found the key support 2300 strong last week, rebounded on Monday when it touches 2308 low, but were resisted at 2348 and followed by a BKO to the bottom.

Last Friday, Nasdaq 100 formed a bullish candlestick reversal pattern, engulf the previous day losses and closed at 2301, well above the key support level for the week.

We maintain the key support at 2300 - 2285
Resistance 2400.

Aggressive Long traders can initiate Long at 2285, SL at 2275, TG 2325, position shall be closed by EOD.

If Nasdaq 100 convincingly break below last week's 2275 low, next will be a minor support 2255, then 2210.

Living Now, or living in the Past?

It takes a lot of patience, courage, determination, and I will call all as Hardwork, to make something happen, for the betterment of future.

We had a wonderful gathering yesterday, after 11 months, together, 4 of us observe growth in each other, together, we realised, what we have planted in the PAST, is giving us a fruitful NOW, and the tree of prosperity and growth, is going to grow bigger, and taller in the next 11 months, and many months to go.

Most importantly, when mentor JC was giving is closing speech for the day, many messages he wants to deliver, I get 1 striking message from him:

Are you living in the Past? Living to correct your mistakes from the Past? or Are you Living in the Future?

During the meditation this morning, and yes, continuous practise, I progress from 5 mins meditation to 14 minutes meditation now, eventually I will make it to 30 minutes, or even 1 hour by the end of 2011.

Back to the realisation... there are many many people who walked in my life, take that example from a typical work place, people complain, 1 month ago, she was complaining the workload and many people will 'throw' the job to her, and 1 month later, she is still struggle at the same topic.

Are we doing the same?
Are we going to repeat the same complain, over and over again?
Are we going to give the same 'punishment' to ourself through this repetition from the past?

Are we going to say, yes, I found a new system, I am going to test it, and make it work.
And after 3 months of testing, we say, yes, this is the system that I am going to trade, this is my trading, and I am gonna stick to it.
Then after 6 months, or 9 months, we complain that the system doesn't work in current market pattern, and start to look for new system?

Are we going to start the search, backtest, make it work, make it fail, and start all over again?

I know that there are many crap system.
I know that there are many wonderful system too!
Simple Support Resistance, and Fibonacci Numbers, can provide good trading guides and can give wonderful returns.
Are you going to make it work, for you?

For the betterment of mankind, for a better tomorrow, for a change of life, for a total control of our time, choices, remind yourself that you are going to make your dream come true.

I remind myself, I will achieve all wealth and success in my life, and I am going to make myself a Successful and Profitable Trader, I aim to spend quality time with my family, I will improve my setup consistency, and profit Unlimitedly from the market, and I hope all can benefit from my success.

The same story can have a good ending, that this girl from the workplace, finally break free from the job, be her own boss, and get her own business, at her own time, and create values to the marketplace.  While she found so many flaws in the previous organisation, she will never repeat the same unto her own company, and she will make a better business, and create many solutions to the marketplace, and finally she become successful and take control of her own life.

Do your part, and make the path for change.
Live, and plan for the future, believe me, that you can be in charge, and you, can make it happen.

Mentor said, the most important ingredient, in your trading, is you.
Take complete responsibility of our own action, if we cannot do it now, at least we try to be our best, do not give up, and do not let others be the one to blame, we play no victim.

Nobody is in upper hand of our life, unless we want him to.  Nobody is going to determine your success, nobody is going to tell you that you are a total failure, unless you want him to.  Start telling yourself, that you are going to be your best.  I am going to be my best, I will achieve all wealth, I will achieve all success, Yes?  or Yes!

Saturday, March 12, 2011

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD on 14-Mar-2011 (Mon)

EUR/USD has been resisted at the weekly trendline near 1.40 last week, EUR/USD has recorded its high 1.4035 on 7-Mar-2011 (Mon) and starts its correction towards 1.3850 support, break this support and finally reverse up at 1.3750 low.

Well, the market is well kept above last week's low of 1.3740, rebounded and closed at 1.3903 for the week.

Quote my previous week's forecast:
Once EUR/USD crossed 1.4250 with a closing above 1.4290, it is going to continue its upwave to 1.4550 region in coming weeks.

Support: 1.3820, breaking below this level expect EUR/USD to dip further to Strong Support: 1.3720.

Coming week, I still reckon EUR/USD to continue its bullish sentiment like last Friday, towards 1.3950 resistance.  Correction down to support 1.3850 or double bottom 1.3750 may happen again before the market finally gain strength to break above 1.4035 and rally towards 1.4250.


Recognised a nice formation on GBP/USD over a discussion just now with team.
Observe for short opportunity in case GBP/USD turn up to 1.6150 - 200 region this week.

Related: Weekly Forecast (FX) - Previous Week

Page Click Crossed 10,000!


Gold and Silver on 14-Mar-2011 (Mon)


ATR = 19
Current Support 1403
Support 1400 (Breakout point)
Next Support 1392
Strong Support 1375

Resistance: 1445
Resistance: 1436

Trading at key support!
Gold has approached to 1403 low on last Thursday 10-Mar-11 and made a double bottom at 1405 then close at 1418.90 for the week.

Although we have yet to see the reversal on Day chart, but current support of 1403 is a good level for aggressive traders to pick long, however, if Gold violated 1400 which is a breakout point to the bottom, we at Ayumi the Novice Trader maintain our view that Gold will test 1375 in the coming week.

Trading Plan:
Early of the Week, look for Long opportunity when Gold is trading near 1403-05 level, intraday Long @ 1405, SL at 1400 (or slightly below it), TG 1423 or close at any price at EOD.

When Gold is trading at resistance 1436, look for reversal and prepare to short at this level, target near 1403-1405 support.

Updates Gold..

Last week, Ayumi the Novice Trader forecast Gold to be resisted at 1436-1440 and will do correction to 1st support 1414, and may even plunge to 1370 if Gold settles below 1400 this week.

Lets see how the market develop...


Very important Weekly forecast, that spelled my annual target for Gold.

Thursday, March 10, 2011






Wednesday, March 9, 2011


I want to long EUR/USD!
Long @ 1.3850 - 1.3870 region SL 1.3830

The rest refer to my earlier posting on Transaction and EUR/USD Weekly Forecast...

Tuesday, March 8, 2011



Short @ 1440 SL 1446 (-6 pts) TG 1414 (+25 pts)
Contract Size: 15
Initial Risk: SGD99.00 (Guaranteed Stop extra spread +-0.3)
Good till tomorrow noon 12pm (GMT+8)
Related: Weekly Forecast on Gold


Working Order (Weekly Position):
Long @ 1.3850 SL 1.3880 (-30 pips) TG 1.4050 (+200 pips)
Good till Wednesday 4pm (GMT+8)

Aggressive intraday trade for Tuesday (8-Mar-2011):
Short @ 1.4020 SL 1.4040 (-20 pips) TG 1.3900 (+120 pips)
Contract Size: 1
Initial Risk: SGD28 (USD22)
Good till tomorrow 2pm (GMT+8)

Related: Weekly forecast on FX - EUR/USD

Monday, March 7, 2011

Weekly Forecast (FX)


Bullish, suspect the narrow range to continue on monday bias up to 1.4030-50.
If market formed a reversal, or divergence on 30 mins chart, EUR/USD is going to face a little correction before it continues to head up.

I would prefer to initiate long when EUR/USD trading at 1.3850, with my 1st Target 1.4150, then 1.4250 near previous top.

Once EUR/USD crossed 1.4250 with a closing above 1.4290, it is going to continue its upwave to 1.4550 region in coming weeks.

Support: 1.3820, breaking below this level expect EUR/USD to dip further to Strong Support: 1.3720.

Weekly position trade: Long near 1.3850, SL 1.3820, TG 1.4150-250.


Resistance: 1.6450
Support: 1.6050

The big candle on weekly chart imply that GBP/USD may go higher this week.... GBP/USD to find current support 1.6230 (4 Hour chart, triple pincer), expect GBP/USD to go higher on Monday to test last week's top 1.6340 again. Breaking above this top means GBP/USD will rise to 1.6450 key resistance level.

To me, the reduced volatility in GBP/USD makes it hard to trade.

I prefer to wait, until GBP/USD comes to 1.6450, I will get ready to short when GBP/USD arrives at 1.6450, with a reversal pattern on intraday chart.

-Stay out-

Sunday, March 6, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Last week on Dow I am aggressive when it hit to a low of 12,022, I saw divergence in the YM Chart and Long at the low region, but I queue 30 points lower for a safe trade, however, that price that I saw on that very moment, is already the lowest. Those who followed this blog, as well as TiP's FB immediate posting would be able to understand what I mean...

I am not sad, nor disappointed, I am happy because the market moves in a lovely direction, and that's why our trade never get initiated.

It is ok, because, coming week, it is a very crucial week for the Dow.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)

Those who observe the 4H chart, will start to see the bull and bear fighting near EMA50 line, in which, I believe market will continue to try to balance out in big range in the coming week before a meaningful breakout is observed!

With the QE2 program now at midpoint (March-2011), investors will start to think how long the market can keep rising before the Fed decides to raise interest rates.
Everything will just happen, before the news come out to "explain" the market behaviour.

And reality, is sometimes so cruel that either you missed the whole down wave, or missed the whole up wave, did you missed the up wave? did you missed it until DJIA hit 80% of the monthly retracement level near 12318?

On 18-Feb-2011, Dow recorded a high of 12,395.25. Started to slide to 11987 in the following week but close above 12000. We identified 12000 key support for DJIA. Last week, it test 12022 low and bounce off immediately, DJIA closed at 12173.88 for the week.

Those who attended the Professional Trade Master Program, pls look into the Day chart and hunt for the start of a Trapezium. If you cannot see it clearly, use 4H chart to see it yourself.

We need Dow to break out from the channel and form a reversal. I would advise traders to stay out and wait for the trade of the month, watch the key level 12400, and 12000, and do not trade at any price in between, you either suffer high stress, or your trading account suffer big SL.

Intraday trader can trade with Fibo Range:
Establish Long at 12050 region, SL 11070 (typo error, should be 11970), TG 12200;
Establish Short at 12300 region, SL 12370, TG 12100.
Must remember that this trading strategy is only for Intraday, if Target price is not hit, the trade must close by End of Day)

Weekly position trade, watch the development of trapezium, expect Dow to break above 12300 to test double top 12400.

Nasdaq 100

Key support : 2300 - 2285
Resistance: 2400

Coming week will be exciting for Nasdaq 100, expect the key support region of 2300-2285 to push Nasdaq 100 higher to 2400 double top.

On Monday:
Aggressive traders can establish intraday Long at 2320 region SL 13 pts away, TG 2360.
For traders prefer to short, watch 2385 for opportunities.

Trade at the key support or double top 2400 for weekly position trade.

Related: DJIA on Friday, I long DJIA 30pts lower on Wed.. Last Week's Forecast on DJIA and Nasdaq 100 (28-Feb-2011)

一个人旅行 • 荒废了的理想

一年以后, 觉得自己的胆子变小了。
刚才看KK's Travelblog (link 在我的blog右边慢慢找),他在柬埔寨,护照也用到没有任何空间能够盖上新的Visa了,我很佩服他的勇气,精神,还有他家人对他的信任。

要坚持自己的理想,依赖的不只是单纯的毅力而已,也不只是朋友的支持,也不是说家人支持就一定能够成功。如果在前面三个条件都符合的情况之下, 还有很多很多的部分,需要我们自己的付出、准备,策划。







Gold and Silver on Mon 7-Mar-2011


Gold currently resisted at 1440, due for a short term correction before going up higher.
With the rumours on rising interest rates, I doubt the Gold current support 1414 can be an ideal level to establish long.

Ayumi prefer to initiate short term position this week, bias down, short at 1336 - 1440 top region, SL 6 pts away, initial target 1414, 2nd target 1396.

This week, if Gold settle below 1400 level, without any reversal sign on Day chart, Gold is likely to complete the correction to 1370 in coming weeks.

Till then we will observe for opportunity to hunt for Long in the Gold market, my annual target for Gold lies at 1600-20.

On the other hand, with current fundamental development, Gold may also go higher before correction take place, if Gold break above 1440 resistance and close with a bullish candle above 1441, Gold may continue to head north target 1480.


The bull is too fierce, the range is too big... :) No comment, no forecast, no trade. :)


Didn't get my entry to the market, but I am as happy as a kid who just received a little cute bear from her father :)

The index moved as per our forecast, hit target price, and formed a double top.

Working on the weekly forecast now... with my extra years umeshu~

Wednesday, March 2, 2011


Dow Jones Industrial Average has posted a daily loss of -168.32 pts (-1.39%), close at 12058.02 which is very near to last week's low.

12000 is a strong support that I wish to enter for a Long trade.
Looking into YM chart, can see that the stochastic has show a little bit of strength at 11994 now, what to do?

Enter with Fibo Range:
Long @ 11955
SL 11905 (-50 pts)
TG 12105 (150 pts) TG2 12135 (180 pts)

Multiple market entry strategies, APSRI is the best :)

Stay out

If there's no pattern that is familiar, no reversal sign or strong support level that you recognise, it is ok to stay out.

A lot of people may just fall into the trap, that thinks that "there must be a way to explain this", "there must be a way to trade in this market".

I used to have these thoughts, I wanted to trade, every single day.

Sometimes I may just have the urge to trade, after many ups and downs... I come to understand that the trade might just go bad, or worse, when I make money, I may just thought I am right.

Successful trading is not about being right or wrong, nor to trade everyday to make a lot of money or lose some.. Trade only when we see the opportunity, make the money, and bring the money home when we have the Edge!

Thanks to mentor JC, again, from a short conversation, he brought up the idea of "trade addict", and explains why there are many losing trades, or mistakes by experienced, or novice traders.

Hope all have good harvest this March 2011.